On College Gameday and during the SEC Championship game, the panel along with Chris Fowler alluded to the fact that with BYU being the only ranked team between Notre Dame and Miami (FL), the head-to-head would become a factor, and with BYU losing today, it definitely does. But with Alabama losing too, it’s possible that both Notre Dame and Miami get in because of those outcomes. To me, Texas has no business being ahead of Miami, and I still am shocked Miami didn’t get into tonight’s game. Seeing that five teams were 6-2 in ACC play overall, including Pitt and Miami (whom beat Pitt), so I suppose Miami lost, perhaps to their benefit, those tiebreakers.
It’s interesting to hear ESPN’s Heather Dinich mention that Miami still might not get the benefit of the doubt because Alabama still has a win over the SEC champion from the regular season. We’ve seen that favor Texas back in 2023 when the playoff field was 4 teams, and additionally, Georgia beat everyone they played this season.
However, I do disagree with Heather on this because I think the convincing nature of Alabama and BYU’s losses today is what will knock them down a peg. Alabama also doesn’t pass the eye test because their three losses all showed them performing poorly, where they lost the turnover battle in all three games.
What I do agree with Heather on is that the Big Ten title will have the best SOR impact since it’s a battle between the top 2 teams. I don’t imagine it being a blow out, so Indiana shouldn’t fall outside the top 4. Because I had predicted Georgia to lose, I thought Texas Tech winning dominantly could push them ahead of Indiana if Indiana lost.
Based on the outcomes today, I believe the four first-round byes are locks, and it’s just a matter of positioning them with the impending outcome of OSU and Indiana.
As I described in my previous post too, James Madison still has some hope with the ACC championship game to be played, as they won their conference.
As I’m writing this, there’s still a few hours before the final games are finished and based on what’s already in the books, I believe the following teams are locks (ranked highest to lowest):
Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Notre Dame. Oregon to Notre Dame didn’t play today so their spots shouldn’t be negatively affected, and with Alabama going down, Notre Dame will surely move up, and with BYU losing, Miami will also move up from its current spot.
The committee can consider, on top of Alabama’s existing win over Georgia from the regular season, the common opponent between Miami and Alabama being Florida State. Miami defeated Florida State in Tallahassee but Alabama didn’t. You could make a claim that we didn’t know what FSU was going to be at the start of the season, and Miami beat them when they already got a signature win and Miami beat FSU while they were ranked. Alabama lost to an unranked FSU.
With all this considered, I do expect that Virginia will win and it unfortunately knocks James Madison out. But stranger things can be happen. Sean McDonough indicated that California defeating SMU last week made it possible with the five-way tiebreaker to get Duke to the title game and they have a chance to knock Virginia out from the playoff field. Sean McDonough explained later that the combined conference record of opponents favored Duke to get them to tonight’s game.
With the pending outcomes from the ACC and Big Ten, and considering what I picked earlier this week, I think the field is as follows (in ranked order):
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Miami (FL)
- Virginia
- Tulane
I believe Alabama will fall outside the top 10 and because BYU was already ranked blow them and also lost by a lopsided margin, BYU will fall even further.
In my mind, this is different from Texas losing twice to Georgia last year where the second time in the championship game was much more competitive. BYU’s losses were both uncompetitive, and two of Alabama’s three losses were uncompetitive.
It’s merely my opinion, and perhaps other fans’ opinion, that eye test AND resumes both matter, but over the course of the 10 years with 4 teams, the eye test mattered more than the resume, and with that, I felt like the committee largely got it right, where the one wild miss to me was Ohio State being allowed into the field in 2016. I also felt that Alabama being in in 2017 was perhaps a stretch, but otherwise, all the teams from the 4 team field sufficiently passed the eye test the years they made the field.
Depending on the year and the circumstances, a team like Notre Dame in 2018 or 2020 probably had no choice but to be in the field especially since they had the resume to be in (ND went a combined 22-1, including 10-1 in the covid year) as well, but the 2020 ND team along with 2016 Ohio State had a couple of games where they looked subpar in their play.
With the 12 team field in since last year, the eye test matters more in my opinion because the teams that aren’t playing conference title games that got in can only be evaluated in the 12 games played, and they are ranked as such based on those games and how they performed. The teams that play conference title games get more opportunities to pass the eye test, but for those who don’t, they are what they showed.
Again, I don’t believe Alabama or BYU pass the eye test especially when considering their combined 5 losses, where only one of them was a close game (Alabama’s 2-point loss to Oklahoma). Notre Dame certainly does in my opinion, and I’d say Miami a little bit less even though Miami beat ND because they looked bad against Louisville and SMU where Carson Beck threw a combined six interceptions in those games, where he was the reason they lost but otherwise the team was excellent. In Alabama’s three losses, the entire team, not just the quarterback, looked out of sorts.
I said it two years when Alabama made it in as the 4-seed in 2023 that I couldn’t imagine Alabama being the first team out in back-to-back years, but I don’t think this is the same situation because Alabama lost a conference championship in embarrassing fashion. I do think, for all intents and purposes, Alabama is eliminated, and BYU too is eliminated. I don’t think Vanderbilt or Texas hold a candle to Miami, especially when you consider who Vanderbilt lost to. Vanderbilt lost to the Alabama team that got walloped by three scores today, and also lost to a Texas team who lost at Florida. Texas also lost badly to Georgia and looked out of sorts against Ohio State.
All things considered, I do think the committee’s job is quite easy based on what has played out today and it’s just a matter of who’s in or out based on who wins the ACC since I believe the rest of the outcomes, all considered, speak for themselves.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 