Playoff Discussion + Predictions for Conference Championship Weekend

I missed the chance to pick tonight’s games so I will pick tomorrow’s games only.

It was a rough week for me last week since I missed on several high-profile games. But let’s see how I do this week.

While I’m watching the score up dates on tonight’s games, Jake Retzlaff might be writing a glorious redemption story after his fallout from BYU and take another school to the playoff even though BYU could become a playoff team without him.

For the teams playing tomorrow that have a shot at the playoff, the following need to happen for each team to get in, though some teams are already in in my opinion without winning tomorrow. However, the more we consider the top-heavy depth of the SEC, it’s going to be difficult to get everyone playing tomorrow into the field.

In my opinion, BYU has to win to get in, and the same goes for Alabama. But the following doomsday scenarios exist in my opinion:

The loser of Duke/Virginia will be eliminated from the playoff and the winner goes even if it is unranked because it is a conference champion. I’m still a bit dumbfounded why Miami isn’t in tomorrow’s game instead of Duke though.

Secondly, if Alabama beats Georgia, Georgia may fall out if the right circumstances take place. But those are few and far between so Georgia likely still goes even if it loses the SEC title game.

Both big ten championship game combatants are in, and the winner of the SEC and ACC championships are in. The winner of the UNT-Tulane game is in. The winner of the Big 12 is in. The winner of the ACC championship game is in. That leaves six spots up for grabs between the following teams:

Oregon, Ole Miss, SEC Championship game loser, Big 12 championship game loser, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Notre Dame. To me, one of these seven will be left out, and most likely it is the Big 12 title game loser if Texas Tech wins. If BYU wins though, I think Notre Dame is the one to be on the outside looking in. I don’t foresee Virginia moving up into the top 12 with a win, where the lowest conference champ being in the top 12 means that the number-11 ranked team in the country gets into the playoff.

Just like last year, the number 11 team (Alabama) was the first team left out after the ACC champion (Clemson) finished ranked 16th. Moreover, I thought Texas might jump higher after winning over Texas A&M last week. But because they are only ranked 13th, they are likely going to miss the playoff even if chaos ensues.

WIthout further ado, my picks for tomorrow’s games:

4) Texas Tech (-12.5) def. 11) BYU, 34-17
Western Michigan (-1.5) def. Miami (OH), 28-21
9) Alabama def. 3) Georgia (-1.5), 31-28
1) Ohio State (-4) def. 2) Indiana, 35-33
17) Virginia (-4) def. Duke, 38-31

Other important factors to note in terms of playoff positioning are that even if Alabama wins and Indiana loses, Alabama is not guaranteed to get a first-round bye. Moreover, the loser of the Big Ten is not guaranteed to fall out of the top 4, and if BYU wins the Big 12, then BYU isn’t guaranteed a first-round by either. But based on my picks, I believe the playoff bracket will be as follows.

1. Ohio State
2. Texas Tech
3. Indiana
4. Oregon
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Ole Miss
8. Texas A&M
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame
11. Virginia
12. Tulane

If this indeed does happen, I have four SEC teams playing home games , and a total of 5 SEC teams in the playoff all ranked abreast from 5 to 9. And we’d have the following match-ups:

12) Tulane vs. 5) Alabama (F)
11) Virginia vs. 6) Georgia (F)
10) Notre Dame (F) vs. 7) Ole Miss
9) Oklahoma vs. 8) Texas A&M (F)

The 8-seed won the playoff last year. Will it happen again this season? A rematch of big 12 foes will take place if this scenario takes shape. Let the games continue!

I’ve removed the comment I made earlier about James Madison since it is anecdotally false. If Duke were to win the ACC, Duke isn’t in the playoff but rather James Madison is since they are a conference champion and would be the fifth highest ranked conference champion. Still, it spells doom for anyone ranked outside the top 10, so for James Madison, they need Duke victory for their playoff spot.

If Duke wins, the winner of the Big 12 is irrelevant to the Dukes’ playoff spot, since the loser of the Big 12 will steal a spot from the at large teams (Notre Dame I imagine) if BYU wins.