Rivalry week is here!
Ohio State continues to be dominant while Indiana got to rest its dominance for one week. Can the Buckeyes clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game? It’s as simple as win and you’re onto Indianapolis for Ohio State to take on Indiana. Otherwise, sit back and await your playoff fate.
Oregon eliminated USC from Big Ten championship game contention with their decisive victory. For all intents and purposes, USC appears to be eliminated from the CFP. Wisconsin got its second ranked win in three weeks by taking down Illinois convincingly too.
Oklahoma appears to be one win away from the playoff and matching its best win total in Brent Venables’ first three seasons, and one of BYU and Utah continue to inch closer to playoff spots as well while Texas Tech has all-but secured a spot to the Big 12 championship game. They’ll face one of Utah or BYU for a second time.
Notre Dame is also a win away from the playoffs though there’s still a lot to play for.
The most high-profile matchups this week are in Ann Arbor for “The Game” and the second straight battle among long lost rivals when Texas A&M visits Texas for the first time since the Longhorns joined the SEC. Because of the lack of drama in the top of the polls, there’s going to be little change in the CFP rankings this week. The only change I can really foresee is Oregon switching spots with Ole Miss or even Miami switching places with Utah. But otherwise nothing major to me.
Week 12 record: 40-17
Week 13 record: 47-17
Total record through Week 13: 527-181 (.744)
I am certain that none of the ranked teams are playing on Tuesday-Thursday this week.
November 25 (2 games):
Bowling Green (-15.5) def. Massachusetts, 41-20
Western Michigan (-6.5) def. Eastern Michigan, 28-14
November 27 (1 game):
Navy def. Memphis (-5.5), 31-27
November 28 (13 games):
7) Ole Miss (-7.5) def. Mississippi State, 41-24
13) Utah (-10.5) def. Kansas, 38-17
Iowa (-6.5) def. Nebraska, 24-14
Ohio (-7.5) def. Buffalo, 28-17
Kent State def. Northern Illinois (-5.5), 27-20
Air Force (-1.5) def. Colorado State, 24-21
4) Georgia (-13.5) def. 23) Georgia Tech, 41-18
San Diego State (-1.5) def. New Mexico, 28-13
North Texas (-20.5) def. Temple, 42-21
Boise State (-3.5) def. Utah State, 32-27
2) Indiana (-28.5) def. Purdue, 59-7
3) Texas A&M (-2.5) def. 16) Texas, 27-24
20) Arizona State def. 25) Arizona (-1.5), 31-27
November 29 (51 games):
15) Michigan def. 1) Ohio State (-9.5), 29-27
5) Texas Tech (-23.5) def. West Virginia, 41-13
22) Pittsburgh def. 12) Miami (FL) (-6.5), 26-23
Kentucky def. Louisville (-3.5), 38-34
Clemson def. South Carolina (-3.5), 30-23
Baylor (-2.5) def. Houston, 34-27
Kansas State (-16.5) def. Colorado, 39-17
Iowa State (-14.5) def. Oklahoma State, 38-7
East Carolina (-6.5) def. Florida Atlantic, 41-31
Central Michigan def. Toledo, 31-17
Miami (OH) (-17.5) def. Ball State, 35-21
11) BYU (-17.5) def. UCF, 38-10
Delaware (-4.5) def. UTEP, 29-23
Florida International (-9.5) def. Sam Houston State, 34-24
Marshall (-8.5) def. Georgia Southern, 35-31
Jacksonville State def. Western Kentucky (-6.5), 30-24
Missouri State (-2.5) def. Louisiana Tech, 27-23
Old Dominion (-27.5) def. Georgia State, 45-10
Appalachian State (-2.5) def. Arkansas State, 34-20
Syracuse def. Boston College (-3.5), 31-24
New Mexico State (-4.5) def. Middle Tennessee State, 32-23
Louisiana (-9.5) def. UL Monroe, 31-17
Texas State (-9.5) def. South Alabama, 35-28
Tulsa (-7.5) def. UAB, 35-21
6) Oregon (-6.5) def. Washington, 31-20
8) Oklahoma (-10.5) def. LSU, 33-13
14) Vanderbilt def. 19) Tennessee (-3.5), 35-34
Missouri (-2.5) def. Arkansas, 30-27
Wisconsin def. Minnesota (-1.5), 24-20
Penn State (-13.5) def. Rutgers, 38-17
Duke (-1.5) def. Wake Forest, 28-27
TCU (-4.5) def. Cincinnati, 34-23
Kennesaw State (-1.5) def. Liberty, 32-27
Southern Mississippi (-6.5) def. Troy, 26-24
UTSA (-7.5) def. Army, 28-24
James Madison (-21.5) def. Coastal Carolina, 38-14
Florida State def. Florida (-1.5), 30-16
Washington State (-13.5) def. Oregon State, 34-17
18) Virginia (-8.5) def. Virginia Tech, 41-17
Maryland def. Michigan State (-3.5), 28-20
South Florida (-28.5) def. Rice, 48-20
10) Alabama (-6.5) def. Auburn, 34-27
17) USC (-21.5) def. UCLA, 38-23
24) Tulane (-30.5) def. Charlotte, 41-10
Northwestern def. Illinois (-6.5), 27-17
NC State (-7.5) def. North Carolina, 28-19
21) SMU (-13.5) def. California, 38-21
UNLV (-7.5) def. Nevada, 35-20
9) Notre Dame (-31.5) def. Stanford, 45-7
Fresno State (-2.5) def. San José State, 27-14
Hawaii (-8.5) def. Wyoming, 31-13
If I end up picking all the winners correctly, then the following conference match-ups will take place:
Big Ten – 6) Oregon vs. 2) Indiana
Big 12 – 11) BYU vs. 5) Texas Tech
ACC – 22) Pittsburgh vs. 18) Virginia
SEC – 10) Alabama vs. 3) Texas A&M
American – North Texas vs. 24) Tulane
MAC – Western Michigan vs. Ohio
Conference-USA – Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State
Sun Belt – Old Dominion vs. James Madison
Mountain West – Boise State vs. San Diego State
James Madison, North Texas, and Tulane are among the teams not in the Power 4 ranked in the Coaches Poll, and remain in that order in the AP Poll. While Tulane is highest ranked among these three teams at 24 in the CFP rankings, all three of them are in play for the Group of 5 spot in the playoff. If any of them lose, they are likely out of the running.
If the outcomes play out as I expect them to, I expect the following to be the resulting top 25:
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Michigan
- Alabama
- BYU
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- USC
- Texas
- Virginia
- Pittsburgh
- Miami (FL)
- Arizona State
- Tennessee
- SMU
- Tulane
- Missouri
- Navy
If Michigan and Oregon both win, it would deny Michigan a shot to play the number 1 team in the country in back-to-back weeks, and Michigan would have to await its fate. But if Oregon loses and Michigan wins, the Michigan gets a shot at Indiana (the presumable number 1 if Ohio State goes down), and would then have a chance to lay the hammer of hammers on a playoff bid if they also defeat Indiana. But first things first, Michigan has to win for that to be possible. Go Blue.
Homering aside, if Michigan does beat Ohio State, then Ohio State’s playoff fate is sealed and they are in as an at-large team, and provided the other outcomes I predict are also correct, the following teams are also guaranteed a spot without playing another game along with Ohio State: Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Georgia, Oklahoma. To me, Oregon, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech are also in regardless, leaving three spots, one of which must go to the highest ranked group of 5 team (currently Tulane), and another spot must go to a conference champion (since the teams bolded below would play for a conference title under this scenario and only span three conferences), and the third one is an at-large team. Keep in mind that Michigan is not guaranteed a spot even if they beat Ohio State. Alabama gets a spot in the SEC title game with a win, and at 10-2, it isn’t a guarantee that they get in if they lose to Texas A&M to end up at 10-3. For Alabama it’s easier to be sure to be in if they win the SEC. We have major additional drama on our hands if Texas upsets Texas A&M because they’re currently ranked 16 and if they take down number 3, they’ll surely jump into the top 10 I imagine. But to me, it’s BYU or Alabama for the last spot. But that aside, I predict Miami to lose and then I anticipate it will be Virginia in that driver’s seat from the ACC so I will put them there for now. Therefore the teams we have are (in no particular order):
Ohio State
Indiana
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Georgia
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oregon
Virginia
Tulane
Alabama/BYU
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens. Let the games begin!
I corrected the post since Alabama has the head-to-head over Georgia for the second SEC title game spot.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 