In Jalen Hurts’ NBC intro on Sunday Night Football, he said “Roll Sooners”. So apropo for the kind of day it was for Oklahoma on Saturday, going into Tuscaloosa and winning. It had been a hot minute since any one did that, with the most recent team to win there being Texas in the 2023 season.
I stand by the take that I made earlier in the year that John Mateer is no longer in the Heisman picture, but he still is going to be a vote-getter because of how he performed against Alabama.
Because Alabama and Texas both lost, there will be a notable shakeup in the rankings this week. I project the following top 12:
- OSU
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Texas A&M
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Utah
- BYU
South Florida losing puts another on the carousel for the top G5 team to swipe a playoff spot, where that distinction currently belongs to Tulane if I remember correctly.
I’m going to include predictions for the earlier games because they feature no ranked teams and update this post throughout the week.
November 18 (3 games):
Bowling Green (-3.5) def. Akron, 29-17 (X)
Ohio (-32.5) def. UMass, 41-7
Western Michigan (-6.5) def. Northern Illinois, 27-20
November 19 (2 games):
Buffalo def. Miami (OH) (-1.5), 23-16 (X)
Central Michigan (-9.5) def. Kent State, 31-21
November 20 (1 game):
Arkansas State (-2.5) def. Louisiana, 34-23 (X)
November 21 (2 games):
NC State def. Florida State (-4.5), 31-30
UNLV (-2.5) def. Hawaii, 41-38
I will include the Saturday games after the CFP rankings have been revealed on Tuesday.
It’s worth noting that Florida State has more than doubled their win total from last season and while it’s nothing to really write home about, they’re a win away from being bowl eligible after a disastrous year in 2024. But this is a testament to what Mike Norvell has built at FSU despite the terrible outcome of being left out in the 2023 CFP, and all of 2024. They had something that was waiting to come out, and it’s starting to show again.
The same can be said in my opinion about UNLV and Hawaii, where UNLV is thriving under Dan Mullen, which is probably the best hire of the season with outcomes being considered. They lost Alex Orji for the season early on and have continued to win even after losing Barry Odom to Purdue. Hawaii is doing amazing under Timmy Chang, and while it’s not quite the glory days of Colt Brennan, they are in great shape compared to where they were after losing June Jones, who coached them to their undefeated regular season in 2007.
After seeing the rankings reveal this week, my initial thought was surprise that Oklahoma only jumped up to number 8. They are proving to be arguably the best two loss team right now, and that justifies them being ahead of Notre Dame, but since they beat the number 4 ranked team on the road, I thought more credit would be given for that. However, there are several 1-loss teams so Oklahoma can’t reasonably be ranked above them despite the win over Alabama. I am quite certain Texas would have had they beaten number 5 Georgia, but it’s a moot point since Texas lost and therefore loses the power of the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oklahoma.
November 22 ():
1) Ohio State (-30.5) def. Rutgers, 52-14
3) Texas A&M (-54.5) def. Samford, 55-3
8) Oklahoma (-6.5) def. 22) Missouri, 31-23
13) Miami (FL) (-17.5) def. Virginia Tech, 35-14
Northwestern (-3.5) def. Minnesota, 24-20
SMU (-4.5) def. Louisville, 27-24
Wake Forest (-17.5) def. Delaware, 34-14
Iowa State (-3.5) def. Kansas, 29-26
Army (-9.5) def. Tulsa, 31-17
4) Georgia (-43.5) def. Charlotte, 56-7
James Madison (-15.5) def. Washington State, 29-14
Arizona (-6.5) def. Baylor, 37-27
Old Dominion (-10.5) def. Georgia Southern, 35-28
10) Alabama (-50) def. Eastern Illinois, 59-7
Auburn (-27.5) def. Mercer, 38-14
Kennesaw State (-6.5) def. Missouri State, 34-24
Wyoming (-6.5) def. Nevada, 24-17
Toledo (-28.5) def. Ball State, 30-10
Marshall (-5.5) def. Appalachian State, 34-27
UConn (-6.5) def. Florida Atlantic, 35-27
Louisiana Tech (-1.5) def. Liberty, 24-21
Sam Houston State def. Middle Tennessee State (-6.5), 27-25
New Mexico State def. UTEP (-3.5), 24-21
South Florida (-21.5) def. UAB, 45-24
7) Oregon (-10.5) def. 15) USC, 35-24
9) Notre Dame (-36.5) def. Syracuse, 52-7
14) Vanderbilt (-8.5) def. Kentucky, 31-20
17) Texas (-9.5) def. Arkansas, 38-17
Iowa (-16.5) def. Michigan State, 27-10
North Carolina def. Duke (-6.5), 27-24
Jacksonville State def. Florida International (-2.5), 28-27
Southern Mississippi def. South Alabama (-1.5), 27-24
East Carolina (-2.5) def. UTSA, 32-30
24) Tulane (-8.5) def. Temple, 30-23
12) Utah (-16.5) def. Kansas State, 32-21
18) Michigan (-14.5) def. Maryland, 38-14
23) Houston (-2.5) def. TCU, 31-24
UCF (-13.5) def. Oklahoma State, 34-13
Troy (-9.5) def. Georgia State, 42-9
South Carolina (-24.5) def. Coastal Carolina, 35-14
Clemson (-41.5) def. Furman, 48-7
Texas State (-20.5) def. UL Monroe, 38-17
16) Georgia Tech (-2.5) def. Pittsburgh, 31-28
Nebraska def. Penn State (-7.5), 27-23
New Mexico (-3.5) def. Air Force, 29-23
Boise State (-16.5) def. Colorado State, 34-11
Florida def. 20) Tennessee (-3.5), 30-27
Wisconsin def. 21) Illinois (-9.5), 20-17
California (-3.5) def. Stanford, 28-20
North Texas (-17.5) def. Rice, 38-21
LSU (-22.5) def. Western Kentucky, 41-10
Cincinnati def. 11) BYU (-2.5), 30-26
25) Arizona State (-6.5) def. Colorado, 28-21
UCLA def. Washington (-10.5), 28-26
Fresno State (-2.5) def. Utah State, 27-24
San Diego State (-11.5) def. San José State, 34-20
There is still plenty on the line especially in the Big Ten, as four teams are in play for the second spot. Indiana is guaranteed a spot because they can finish no worse than 8-1 and already have a head to head win over Oregon whom can finish no better than 8-1. Even if Indiana loses, I imagine they will still be ranked ahead of USC if both teams were 8-1 in conference. It can’t be guaranteed that the rankings are going to play out in one’s favor so business has to be taken care of first and foremost. The other two teams in play for that second spot are Ohio State and Michigan. The scenario for each of those four teams to get the second spot:
Ohio State – win out
Oregon – win out and Ohio State loses their last two games
USC – win out and Ohio State loses their last two games
Michigan – win out, Oregon wins over USC and Washington beats Oregon
The loser of Oregon and USC is eliminated from contention and from above, Michigan should be rooting for Oregon since USC has the head-to-head over the Wolverines.
Ohio State could lose one of their last two games but is not guaranteed the second spot in the title game if they are 8-1 since the rankings will depend on whom they lose to. If they lose to Rutgers, their ranking will be worse affected than if they lost to Michigan. If Oregon wins out and OSU wins one of their two games, it could put Oregon ahead of OSU in the rankings but that isn’t guaranteed depending on whom they lose to. If OSU beats Rutgers and loses to Michigan, say, in a close game, while Oregon still wins out, OSU might still be ahead of Oregon where I believe that is a tiebreaker that favors Ohio State. I can’t remember if strength of schedule or record are considered in such a scenario and I will take a look when possible.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 