Indiana finally got challenged. Google it!
Penn State finally played like the team they were expected to be but ran into a better team, and as a result, that’s why Penn State isn’t no.2 but Indiana is. They have to fight for bowl eligibility now with their sixth straight loss, but it isn’t out of the question. Otherwise, most of the top 10 played like they were justified to be there. The one exception is BYU, whom I think will plummet at least five spots. However, they are helped by the ACC’s top two teams both stubbing their toes this week.
It was a rough week for me pick-wise as I only went 29-17, to lead to a total record through 11 weeks of 440-147 (.750).
Based on the results from last week, I project the following top 12 for tomorrow (11/11):
- Ohio State
- Texas A&M
- Indiana
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Utah
- Oklahoma
Memphis falling throws a wrench in whom the fifth highest ranked potential conference champion is, where this is only among the Group of 5 since the four other conference champions are from Power 4 conferences and get a spot. South Florida projects as that team for now, and would leave Oklahoma out of the field if my projections are indeed accurate. In the playoff model, I still don’t fully think the current format is the most suitable even though I think it is fair to reward the top 4 teams with byes. I’d have a hard time thinking that none of the top 4 teams win a power conference, and since 5 conference champions are in the field in total, I want those four also to get at least a home game if not a first-round bye.
I don’t think South Florida stands a chance against Georgia with all due respect – Georgia was 4 points better than Florida but South Florida was less than four points better than Florida, and Georgia’s talent level as a team, if measurable, is much higher than that of South Florida. Utah can give Ole Miss a run for their money though, and Texas-Texas Tech would be an epic battle of former Big 12 rivals. Oregon-Notre Dame would be interesting as well if that happened. Dan Lanning has been on a staff that beat Notre Dame earlier in his career too.
I think Indiana will be penalized slightly for their close win at Penn State along with Texas A&M looking dominant against Missouri, so they will swap spots for now if that is indeed what happens. Indiana had a chance to see that they weren’t invincible, and while Wisconsin is nowhere as good as PSU despite the same record, Indiana shouldn’t look past them since Wisconsin is fighting for bowl eligibility too. If Indiana wins this week though, I think their spot in the playoff is all but secured. Same for Ohio State if they win this week as well. Having a bye week the week before their last game is interesting timing, especially since Ohio State has lost four straight against the WWWWolverines and ideally they don’t want their momentum thrown off especially since they’re playing so well.
Predictions for week 12:
11/11 (2 games):
Akron (-5.5) def. Kent State, 38-24 (X)
Western Michigan (-1.5) def. Ohio, 27-23
11/12 (3 games):
Buffalo def. Central Michigan (-1.5), 28-21 (X)
Northern Illinois (-10.5) def. UMass, 31-14
Miami (OH) def. Toledo (-3.5), 28-25 (X)
11/13 (1 game):
Old Dominion (-11.5) def. Troy, 35-21
I missed the chance to put in the Friday games before they started so no picks for those games.
11/15 (51 games):
2) Indiana (-28.5) def. Wisconsin, 38-10
3) Texas A&M (-17.5) def. South Carolina, 42-14
9) Notre Dame (-12.5) def. 22) Pittsburgh, 34-23
18) Michigan (-10.5) def. Northwestern, 30-17
24) South Florida (-10.5) def. Navy, 34-27
25) Cincinnati (-6.5) def. Arizona, 36-28
Kansas State (-19.5) def. Oklahoma State, 42-21
UConn (-7.5) def. Air Force, 38-24
UTSA (-17.5) def. Charlotte, 41-20
Ball State def. Eastern Michigan (-2.5), 29-24
LSU (-4.5) def. Arkansas, 27-21
Tulsa (-1.5) def. Oregon State, 27-23
Arizona State (-10.5) def. West Virginia, 31-14
Kentucky (-21.5) def. Tennessee Tech, 42-14
Marshall (-7.5) def. Georgia State, 38-31
North Texas (-18.5) def. UAB, 42-24
Missouri State (-5.5) def. UTEP, 28-24
New Mexico (-14.5) def. Colorado State, 35-21
4) Alabama (-6.5) def. 11) Oklahoma, 31-21
6) Texas Tech (-23.5) def. UCF, 38-14
15) Miami (FL) (-15.5) def. NC State, 32-23
16) Georgia Tech (-16.5) def. Boston College, 42-24
21) Iowa def. 17) USC (-6.5), 27-24
19) Virginia def. Duke (-3.5), 33-27
Penn State (-6.5) def. Michigan State, 38-17
Illinois (-15.5) def. Maryland, 34-20
Western Kentucky (-13.5) def. Middle Tennessee, 35-24
San José State (-9.5) def. Nevada, 30-23
James Madison (-20.5) def. Appalachian State, 41-21
UL Monroe def. South Alabama (-4.5), 28-24
Southern Mississippi (-3.5) def. Texas State, 35-31
Memphis def. East Carolina (-2.5), 30-27
Tulane (-17.5) def. Florida Atlantic, 41-24
23) Tennessee (-40.5) def. New Mexico State, 52-7
Wake Forest (-4.5) def. North Carolina, 21-20
Liberty (-2.5) def. Florida International, 27-24
Coastal Carolina def. Georgia Southern (-3.5), 31-28
7) Ole Miss (-11.5) def. Florida, 37-17
13) Utah (-8.5) def. Baylor, 34-20
Washington (-16.5) def. Purdue, 38-14
Delaware (-11.5) def. Sam Houston State, 35-20
UNLV (-6.5) def. Utah State, 38-31
1) Ohio State (-32.5) def. UCLA, 48-17
10) Texas def. 5) Georgia (-6.5), 27-22
Florida State (-13.5) def. Virginia Tech, 37-21
Missouri (-7.5) def. Mississippi State, 30-24
Kennesaw State (-3.5) def. Jacksonville State, 28-27
Washington State (-8.5) def. Louisiana Tech, 27-17
12) BYU (-3.5) def. TCU, 28-21
San Diego State (-1.5) def. Boise State, 21-19
Fresno State (-3.5) def. Wyoming, 23-14
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 