After a long hiatus, I’m back for the upcoming season.
The long-awaited ‘hammer’ on Michigan has struck. While the ruling and rationale are understandable, so is the uproar. My thought is this: the punishments are fair.
You might ask, “Why are they fair?”
You might know what’s coming, but you still have to stop it. That cannot solely be chalked up to the advanced scouting that Connor Stalions did. What it takes to stop the play, on top of scouting, is scheme and execution. You can also be outsmarted in the moment if you know, for example, a formation is specifically to be a run to the left side, you can mix things up so much that the advanced scouting is essentially worthless if you aren’t prepared. That is the equivalent of teams preparing wrinkles and formations that haven’t been seen before and you have to get yourself into position too by reading your keys right as a defense and getting to the ball. It can look like you cheated if you are in on a play so quickly, but you can get in on a play quickly as well if the offense busts an assignment. From the other side as well, offenses are always trying to ‘steal signs’ during the game and they too, in a way, are doing advance scouting by being allowed to bark out signals pre-snap particularly by the quarterback. What’s the difference? Offenses have to execute to score. Defense executes not to score, but rather to stop offensive scores from happening, and are not allowed to disconcert signals during the game the way offenses are allowed to. It’s a 5-yard penalty against the defense and is called at the referee’s discretion.
Additionally, the show-cause bans on Jim Harbaugh as well as Stalions are punishments on their ability to coach college football. Stalions is young enough that he’ll get chances to work in college football again after it’s over, but Jim Harbaugh was never coming back to college after he took the Chargers’ job. He did his time, and now he’s out.
Since Week 0 is around the corner, we start the second year of a new era of college football since we had the 12 team playoff last year for the first time, along with supersized conferences. Looking out to the first games, we have the top 5 showdown between top ranked Texas and 3rd ranked Ohio State. We were robbed a second time of a possible AP 1 vs. 2 match-up in the first week of the season, where in 2017, Alabama pulled away from Florida State. Additionally, Clemson plays Georgia week 1, to highlight possibly season-defining games early on.
Nearer the end of the year, Ohio State will try to end a 4-game losing streak against the Michigan Wolverines, where to me, the reason why Ohio State has lost the last four years lies in the history of the winner being the team with more rushing yards. Needless to say, Ohio State’s last win in 2019, Michigan has won the rushing battle, but Ohio State played to that in Ryan Day’s first year in 2019 and the personnel they have on offense since the 2020 season is predicated on them passing to be successful (as an exception, they would have boat-raced Michigan in 2020). That’s why they’ve beaten virtually everyone else with Coach Day at the helm. It just makes it harder for them to beat Michigan because they have to go against what makes them elite and last year made it evident that even when they are baited to run the ball, they have trouble, and they have to successfully run the ball to win the game.
If I had to pick the playoff field right now, I’d have the following teams (no particular order):
Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Boise State, Arizona State, Texas A&M
I expect jumps from both Michigan and Alabama with second-year coaches, and Marcus Freeman and Spencer Danielson to keep things going at their respective schools as well. Mike Elko and Texas A&M could have played for a playoff spot last year had they beaten Texas, and that will definitely be a motivating factor for them in year 2 with Elko leading the Aggies. I have the following conference champs making the playoff: Texas, Michigan, Clemson, Boise State, Arizona State.
Last year, I had a win rate of 656-250 (.724). Here’s to hoping I’ll do better this season!
Picks for Week 0
August 23 (5 games):
22) Iowa State def. 17) Kansas State (-3), 31-24
UNLV (-26.5) def. Idaho State, 45-14
Kansas (-13) def. Fresno State, 37-21
Western Kentucky (-10.5) def. Sam Houston, 38-24
Stanford def. Hawaii (-2.5), 31-26
Picks for Week 1
August 28 (17 games):
25) Boise State (-6.5) def. South Florida, 41-20
Rutgers (-14.5) def. Ohio, 38-14
Bowling Green def. Lafayette, 45-10
NC State (-11.5) def. East Carolina, 38-20
UCF (-17.5) def. Jacksonville State, 41-14
Delaware def. Delaware State, 44-30
UL Monroe def. St. Francis, 48-7
Wyoming (-7) def. Akron, 30-27
Missouri def. Central Arkansas, 42-10
Duke (-33.5) def. Elon, 51-14
Oklahoma State (-22.5) def. UT Martin, 38-17
Minnesota (-16.5) def. Buffalo, 31-13
Houston (-22.5) def. Stephen F. Austin, 41-13
Alabama State def. UAB, 31-28
Nebraska (-6.5) def. Cincinnati, 34-24
Wisconsin (-17.5) def. Miami (OH), 45-3
San Diego State (-15.5) def. Stony Brook, 41-17
August 29 (11 games):
Army def. Tarleton State, 49-14
Michigan State (-19.5) def. Western Michigan, 45-10
Wake Forest (-17) def. Kennesaw State, 46-13
Appalachian State (-7) def. Charlotte, 31-21
Bethune-Cookman def. Florida International, 36-24
12) Illinois (-46.5) def. Western Illinois, 63-3
Kansas def. Wagner, 51-7
Baylor def. Auburn (-2.5), 33-30
Colorado def. Georgia Tech (-4), 33-24
UNLV (-12.5) def. Sam Houston, 38-17
San José State (-11) def. Central Michigan, 38-24
August 30 (60 games):
1) Texas def. 3) Ohio State (-2), 28-24
24) Tennessee (-13.5) def. Syracuse, 38-21
Mississippi State (-12) def. Southern Miss, 41-20
Maryland (-14.5) def. Florida Atlantic, 42-14
Purdue (-17.5) def. Ball State, 38-17
Tulane (-6) def. Northwestern, 27-20
Pittsburgh def. Duquesne, 45-14
Navy def. VMI, 35-10
Kent State def. Merrimack, 49-14
Kentucky (-7.5) def. Toledo, 30-24
Boston College def. Fordham, 38-16
West Virginia def. Robert Morris, 44-10
UConn def. Central Connecticut, 51-9
20) Indiana (-22.5) def. Old Dominion, 47-14
Louisville def. Eastern Kentucky, 58-6
2) Penn State (-44) def. Nevada, 81-14
5) Georgia (-39.5) def. Marshall, 52-3
8) Alabama (-13.5) def. Florida, 31-17
22) Iowa State (-15.5) def. South Dakota, 38-10
Air Force def. Bucknell, 42-7
Temple (-3) def. UMass, 28-21
Northern Illinois def. Holy Cross, 41-10
7) Oregon (-29.5) def. Montana State, 48-6
Liberty (-25.5) def. Maine, 41-14
Arkansas def. Alabama A&M, 46-10
Memphis def. Chattanooga, 45-13
18) Oklahoma (-35.5) def. Illinois State, 49-7
Iowa (-37.5) def. Albany, 45-7
Virginia (-17.5) def. Coastal Carolina, 38-24
James Madison (-25.5) def. Weber State, 35-14
15) Florida def. Long Island, 50-10
17) Kansas State (-28) def. North Dakota, 45-17
19) Texas A&M (-22.5) def. UTSA, 48-10
Vanderbilt (-36) def. Charleston Southern, 52-10
Middle Tennessee def. Austin Peay, 43-12
Western Kentucky def. North Alabama, 55-14
Arkansas State (-10.5) def. Southeast Missouri State, 41-17
South Alabama def. Morgan State, 49-3
Troy (-22.5) def. Nicholls State, 37-14
4) Clemson (-4) def. 9) LSU, 31-29
14) Michigan (-37) def. New Mexico, 44-11
23) Texas Tech def. Arkansas Pine-Bluff, 53-14
USC (-35) def. Missouri State, 48-13
Louisiana Tech (-13.5) def. Southeast Louisiana, 42-7
Utah State (-4) def. UTEP, 41-30
21) Ole Miss (-38) def. Georgia State, 48-10
BYU (-35) def. Portland State, 51-10
Louisiana (-13) def. Rice, 35-14
Texas State (-14) def. Eastern Michigan, 34-27
North Texas def. Lamar, 41-21
Tulsa def. Abilene Christian, 44-17
16) SMU def. East Texas A&M, 56-14
New Mexico State (-19.5) def. Bryant, 41-20
Georgia Southern def. Fresno State (-2), 31-28
11) Arizona State (-28.5) def. Northern Arizona, 52-7
Washington State (-10) def. Idaho, 48-13
California def. Oregon State (-3), 30-27
Arizona (-13.5) def. Hawaii, 35-24
UCLA def. Utah (-6), 29-24
Washington (-20) def. Colorado State, 38-14
August 31 (2 games):
13) South Carolina (-8) def. Virginia Tech, 36-21)
10) Miami (FL) def. 6) Notre Dame, 27-26
September 1 (1 game):
North Carolina def. TCU (-3), 31-28
It’s been over 50 years since the preseason number 1 team in the FBS lost its first game (1972), where in that year, both top ranked Nebraska and 4th ranked Arkansas lost in the opening weekend (learned when Wisconsin took down 5th ranked LSU the same day 3rd ranked Oklahoma lost as well).
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 