I did not put picks in on time yesterday, so I will not retroactively claim that I picked the winners. Jacksonville State, Army, and Boise State clinched conference championships yesterday. How about Army, even though they are on the outside looking in, with an 11-1 season? They still have the Army-Navy game, but they could do something they maybe have never done, winning 12 games this season. Michigan did it for the first time in 24 years in 2021, a first of three such seasons in a row. Boise State has clinched a spot because I don’t see how the committee can move them down below other conference championship combatants that are currently ranked below them.
For today’s slate, the Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, and ACC title games pit four teams that are in their first year in the conference with potential to come in and proclaim their supremacy as the new guys on the block. Texas, whom defeated last year’s SEC champion as a member of the Big 12, was perhaps most built for their new conference, and the same went for Oregon, perhaps more so because Oregon is number 1 and undefeated compared to just 11-1 for Texas. But Texas, with a win, can say they beat everyone on their schedule by splitting the season series with Georgia.
With a victory, SMU would be on the precipice of doing what I considered unthinkable given their circumstances, where they suffered the death penalty in the 1980s, and had largely been down for many seasons, and went through many coaches. Rhett Lashlee has done an excellent job as the coach, upgrading the talent and the product on the field to making SMU great at football again. I can’t remember them being in the top 10 ever in my lifetime, and here they have been for four weeks.
Even though many of the teams playing today are firmly entrenched in the playoff regardless of results, they still have a bye to play for. I don’t expect anyone to just lay down today.
Week 14 record: 46-21
Record through the completion of the regular season: 619-230 (.729)
Predictions for today’s games (6 games):
15) Arizona State def. 16) Iowa State (F -1), 34-27
Ohio def. Miami (OH) (F -2.5), 27-24
5) Georgia def. 2) Texas (F -3), 30-27
Louisiana (F -5) def. Marshall, 33-28
1) Oregon (F -3.5) def. 3) Penn State, 28-24
17) Clemson def. 8) SMU (F -2.5), 31-27
To refresh the viewers on my preseason conference championship match-ups, particularly in the Power 4, I had Utah 
vs. Kansas, Georgia vs. Alabama, Michigan vs. Oregon (W), and Miami vs. Clemson (W). I am sticking with the preseason picks that advanced to the championship game.
Based on where Georgia is ranked, I don’t see them falling out of the top 10 unless they lose miserably or look awful in a loss. I suppose the loss to Alabama can be held against them if they lose to Texas too, because that would count as a major L given they split the season series with Texas with a loss today. Georgia beat the number 1 and 2 team in the country at the time of playing, something no other school can claim. Had Michigan beaten Oregon earlier this season, Michigan would have been able to stake that claim too.
Based on these projections for today’s games combined with what happened last night, what I anticipate for the playoff bracket is below, with the following setup:
Four byes – 1) Oregon, 2) Georgia (5), 3) Clemson (17), 4) Boise State (10).
First-round hosts – 5) Notre Dame (4), 6) Texas (2), 7) Penn State (3), 8) Ohio State (6)
First-round visitors – 9) Tennessee (7), 10) Indiana (9), 11) Alabama (11), 12) Arizona State (15)
First two teams out: Miami, SMU
I anticipate that SMU will get penalized for losing to Clemson, enough that Alabama stays in the bracket. Alabama would be rewarded with an angry Texas team if this were to come true.
Match-ups are: 12) Arizona State at 5) Notre Dame, 11) Alabama at 6) Texas, 10) Indiana at 7) Penn State, 9) Tennessee at 8) Ohio State. These are at the site of the higher-ranked team.
ASU-ND winner plays against 4) Boise State (Fiesta)
ALA-TEX winner plays against 3) Clemson (Sugar)
IND-PSU winner plays against 2) Georgia (Peach)
TENN-OSU winner plays against 1) Oregon (Rose)
I’m inclined to believe that the higher ranked team will have a geographic preferential treatment with respect to which NY6 bowl they’ll play in for the quarterfinals.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 