The third-to-last CFP reveal took place on Tuesday, and many are up and arms about the placement of Alabama after looking flat and unprepared to play a 5-5 Oklahoma team. While Alabama doesn’t control where they are ranked, it does help them that they beat a top 10 team in Georgia, and they have a close loss against another top-10 team. Despite the other two losses being what they are, that is the reason why they are still ranked at 13, whether we like it or not.
Heather Dinich made an interesting point on the reveal show on Tuesday when she said that Tulane could contribute to chaos in terms of who gets in, because the 5 automatic spots are not exclusive to the power 4 (obviously because they can’t fill the fifth spot), such that the 5th highest conference champion could be higher than one of the other power 4 conferences. Right now, the highest ranked team from the Big 12 is Arizona State, and Tulane could finish ahead of them, or whomever wins the Big 12. Like Heather, I don’t envision it happening, but it’s worth keeping in mind, as 9 of the big 12 teams are still in contention for the title.
Rivalry Week is here, and with certain match-ups come big implications. Clemson and South Carolina play a top-15 matchup in Death Valley (SC) where Clemson could secure a spot in the ACC Championship for a date against SMU. Oregon awaits its fate for the Big Ten as well with three possible opponents, and Georgia secured a spot in the SEC title even though they are currently tied for third in the conference. The reason Georgia could clinch is because they have finished their conference schedule and have already beaten one of the two teams ahead of them in the conference, and beat the team they are currently tied with in the conference (Tennessee) and ahead of the two teams that beat them in conference (Alabama, Ole Miss) and Alabama + Ole Miss both have conference games to end their regular seasons.
Army is essentially eliminated after losing to Notre Dame as it was ranked 19 despite being undefeated last week, so even though they could still win the Commander-in-Chief trophy, it is just about impossible to be on the path to the top 12.
Tuesday’s games were Buffalo and Kent State, and Toledo and Akron. I correctly picked Buffalo and missed on Akron. After adding the games from 11/23 to the result, my picks record this season is 573-209 (.733). Below are the remainder of the games for this week.
November 28 (1 game):
17) Tulane (F -13.5) def. Memphis, 38-24
November 29 (14 games):
11) Boise State (F -19) def. Oregon State, 41-20
25) Colorado (F -16) def. Oklahoma State, 41-24
Wisconsin (F -1.5) def. Minnesota, 24-17
Bowling Green (F -2.5) def. Miami (OH), 24-21
Ohio (F -17) def. Ball State, 35-17
Navy def. East Carolina (F -2.5), 30-27
14) Ole Miss (F -26) def. Mississippi State, 41-14
Liberty (F -2.5) def. Sam Houston, 27-24
Colorado State (F -6) def. Utah State, 34-24
South Alabama def. Texas State (F -1), 31-28
Stanford def. San José State (F -2.5), 29-24
7) Georgia (F -19.5) def. Georgia Tech, 38-14
Iowa (F -3.5) def. Nebraska, 28-24
UCF (F -10) def. Utah, 30-23
November 30 (50 games):
Michigan def. 2) Ohio State (F -20.5), 26-24
8) Tennessee (F -10.5) def. Vanderbilt, 31-17
15) South Carolina def. 12) Clemson (F -2.5), 28-26
23) Illinois (F -7.5) def. Northwestern, 28-17
Louisville (F -4) def. Kentucky, 31-20
UConn (F -10.5) def. UMass, 31-17
Duke (F -4) def. Wake Forest, 35-21
Baylor def. Kansas (F -1.5), 30-28
Texas Tech (F -3) def. West Virginia, 34-31
Louisiana (F -9.5) def. UL Monroe, 27-20
Army (F -7) def. UTSA, 30-23
North Texas (F -11) def. Temple, 35-31
Western Michigan (F -6.5) def. Eastern Michigan, 33-27
Florida International (F -9.5) def. Middle Tennessee, 32-24
Coastal Carolina (F -1) def. Georgia State, 28-27
Troy (F -17.5) def. Southern Mississippi, 34-17
South Florida (F -5) def. Rice, 34-27
Pittsburgh def. Boston College (F -5.5), 30-24
Arkansas State def. Old Dominion (F -4), 31-27
4) Penn State (F -24.5) def. Maryland, 38-17
5) Notre Dame (F -7.5) def. USC, 30-23
6) Miami (FL) (F -11) def. Syracuse, 40-27
9) SMU (F -13.5) def. California, 35-21
13) Alabama (F -11.5) def. Auburn, 38-21
16) Arizona State (F -8.5) def. Arizona, 33-20
21) Missouri (F -3) def. Arkansas, 30-23
Michigan State (F -1.5) def. Rutgers, 26-23
Fresno State def. UCLA (F -8), 28-17
North Carolina (F -3) def. NC State, 31-24
Northern Illinois (F -12.5) def. Central Michigan, 31-14
Charlotte (F -2.5) def. UAB, 27-20
Tulsa def. Florida Atlantic, 30-27
Jacksonville State def. Western Kentucky (F -1.5), 30-29
Louisiana Tech (F -12) def. Kennesaw State, 34-20
New Mexico State (F -3) def. UTEP, 29-26
TCU (-3.5) def. Cincinnati, 37-27
Georgia Southern (F -2.5) def. Appalachian State, 33-28
Washington State (F -17.5) def. Wyoming, 38-18
10) Indiana (F -29) def. Purdue, 41-14
Florida (F -14.5) def. Florida State, 31-13
LSU (F -6) def. Oklahoma, 31-17
1) Oregon (F -18.5) def. Washington, 37-17
20) Texas A&M def. 3) Texas (F -5), 27-24
18) Iowa State (F -2.5) def. 24) Kansas State, 28-24
22) UNLV (F -17.5) def. Nevada, 41-10
Virginia Tech (F -7) def. Virginia, 31-28
Marshall def. James Madison (F -5), 29-24
19) BYU (F -13) def. Houston, 31-10
Air Force (F -4) def. San Diego State, 24-20
New Mexico (F -3) def. Hawaii, 30-28
I’m going out on quite the limb picking Michigan, but this is the third time in four years I’ve picked Michigan to win by two points. The previous two times I did, Michigan won by double digits. Just some food for thought.
Based on these picks, I’m projecting Penn State vs. Oregon for the Big Ten title, Texas A&M vs. Georgia for the SEC title, SMU vs. Miami for the ACC title, and BYU vs. Arizona State for the Big 12 championship. What an impressive story the aggies have been under Mike Elko!
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 