While it was expected to see most of the highly ranked teams take care of business, it was anything but a regular day at the office. Top-ranked Oregon barely quacked by Wisconsin and unfortunately it cost Phil Longo his job. But the team has played incredibly hard and showed that even the top ranked team in the country is not infallible. Georgia is squarely back in the playoff race after taking down Tennessee as well, and they needed a win as much as anyone.
Michigan comes off a bye week this week, and is in need of a win arguably the most as they end their regular season at Ohio State. I’d argue Wisconsin is next for needing a victory, though I wouldn’t worry too much because Luke Fickell knows how to motivate his teams for rivalry games as well as anyone in college football. He was on the winning side at least 12 times as an assistant with Ohio State over Michigan.
Florida appears to be doing right to stick with Billy Napier after getting a win over LSU. LSU is imploding a bit but Florida needed that win and now has confidence for the future with DJ Lagway at quarterback. I also don’t think Luke Fickell is on any sort of hot seat either.
BYU was the notable upset of the week and even with a loss they still lead the Big 12 race. I find it hard to think there could be two of the playoff-merited conference champions outside the top 12 of the final rankings, as this would guarantee that both of the teams ranked 11 and 12 would be out of the playoff should it be the case.
I don’t see too much change in the rankings this week aside from Georgia jumping into the top 10 and BYU falling out of the top 10 along with Tennessee. I’d envision similar to the AP poll that everyone who gets leapfrogged by Georgia will fall a spot.
Indiana will play its most important college football game ever, and I think if Indiana wins that game, they could be the top ranked team in the country entering the final week of the season. But as a Michigan fan, I’d root for Ohio State since I’d rather not see an angry OSU team coming off a loss.
Record through 12 weeks: 528-187 (.738)
Predictions for this week are below.
November 19 (3 games):
Akron (F -10) def. Kent State, 31-17
Western Michigan (F -7) def. Central Michigan, 38-28 (X)
Miami (OH) (F -2.5) def. Northern Illinois, 24-17
November 20 (2 games):
Buffalo def. Eastern Michigan (F -2.5), 28-24
Ohio def. Toledo (F -2.5), 27-20
November 21 (1 game):
Georgia Tech (F -9) def. NC State, 34-24
November 22 (3 games):
UTSA (F -16.5) def. Temple, 38-21
Michigan State (F -13) def. Purdue, 38-10
UNLV (F -8) def. San José State, 37-27
Even though it is still the penultimate week of the regular season, I have already been thinking about reasons why Michigan will and won’t beat Ohio State. Below are one reason why Michigan will and won’t beat Ohio State.
Why Michigan will beat Ohio State: There have been three Rose Bowls won among Michigan and Ohio State since the 2018 season, and in the previous two times Ohio State won the Rose Bowl (2019, 2022), the home team lost the game the following season. Ohio State is the home team this year. Moreover, 2019 was Ryan Day’s first year succeeding a Rose Bowl winning coach who resigned after the season (Urban Meyer) and Jim Harbaugh was coaching against Ohio State for the 5th time. In 2024, Sherrone Moore is succeeding Jim Harbaugh, who won the Rose Bowl, and Ryan Day is coaching against Michigan for the 5th time.
Why Michigan won’t beat Ohio State: Michigan hasn’t won four straight against Ohio State since prior to 1995. additionally, Michigan hasn’t beaten Ohio State in a leap year since 2000.
Saturday’s games are below.
November 23 (56 games):
2) Ohio State (F -10.5) def. 5) Indiana, 45-38
8) Miami (F -23.5) def. Wake Forest, 41-20
9) Ole Miss (F -13) def. Florida, 34-20
13) SMU (F -11) def. Virginia, 35-17
25) Illinois def. Rutgers (F -2), 26-24
Iowa (F -4.5) def. Maryland, 27-20
Syracuse (F -10) def. UConn, 31-20
North Carolina (F -2.5) def. Boston College, 28-24
Jacksonville State (F -4.5) def. Sam Houston, 29-27
10) Georgia (F -42) def. UMass, 52-0
11) Tennessee (F -41.5) def. UTEP, 48-3
Western Kentucky def. Liberty (F -1), 27-26
Florida State (F -33) def. Charleston Southern), 38-7
Bowling Green (F -11) def. Ball State, 35-21
Rice (F -7) def. UAB, 28-23
Middle Tennessee (F -3.5) def. New Mexico State, 28-24
James Madison (F -7.5) def. Appalachian State, 34-27
TCU (F -11) def. Arizona, 35-24
Florida International (F -9) def. Kennesaw State, 24-20
Arkansas State (F -3) def. UL Monroe, 27-24
South Alabama (F -24) def. Southern Miss, 41-17
Charlotte (F -3) def. Florida Atlantic, 28-21
3) Texas (F -18.5) def. Kentucky, 34-13
4) Penn State (F -11) def. Minnesota, 34-20
14) BYU def. 21) Arizona State (F -3), 27-23
16) Colorado (F -2.5) def. Kansas, 38-28
17) Clemson (F -49.5) def. The Citadel, 51-10
Michigan (F -10.5) def. Northwestern, 24-10
Wisconsin def. Nebraska (F -1), 21-20
Stanford def. California (F -14.5), 30-24
Texas Tech (F -5) def. Oklahoma State, 34-31
West Virginia def. UCF (F -3), 34-27
Utah State (F -5) def. San Diego State, 34-27
Georgia Southern def. Coastal Carolina (F -2.5), 31-27
East Carolina def. North Texas (F -2.5), 41-31
South Florida (F -18) def. Tulsa, 38-24
18) South Carolina (F -42.5) def. Wofford, 52-7
Arkansas (F -23.5) def. Louisiana Tech, 37-10
Pitt def. Louisville (F -7.5), 30-27
23) Missouri (F -9.5) def. Mississippi State, 41-14
Louisiana (F -8.5) def. Troy, 35-14
19) Army def. 6) Notre Dame (F -14), 27-24
12) Boise State (F -22.5) def. Wyoming, 41-17
Washington State (F -11) def. Oregon State, 35-24
Baylor (F -8) def. Houston, 28-21
Texas State (F -21) def. Georgia State, 38-14
7) Alabama (F -14) def. Oklahoma, 34-17
15) Texas A&M (F -1.5) def. Auburn, 30-17
22) Iowa State (F -7) def. Utah, 27-20
Marshall def. Old Dominion (F -3), 31-24
LSU (F -8) def. Vanderbilt, 28-24
Duke def. Virginia Tech (F -3), 28-25
Kansas State (F -9.5) def. Cincinnati, 35-28
USC (F -4.5) def. UCLA, 30-23
Nevada (F -3) def. Air Force, 24-21
Colorado State def. Fresno State (F -3), 27-17
As I went through this set of games, I would never have given it a thought that Florida State and Charleston Southern would be a battle of 1-win teams, and that Army would go into South Bend as an undefeated team. Army would be my ‘superdog’ of the week as I have them winning outright as a 14-point underdog. If you pay attention to the records of the teams, especially in conference, I think that if you’re playing better against your conference schedule, you would have a better chance to win the game especially that maybe 75% of games at most are conference games. Florida Atlantic and Charlotte is a game of two schools whom fired their head coaches so that could be interesting as far as who wants to actually show up.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 