I had referred to certain games that had a case for game of the year, and Ohio State and Oregon added to that list. Penn State and USC had another epic as well. Alabama survived a scare this time after not doing so last week, and Vanderbilt followed up that big win over Alabama with another one against Kentucky.
We are just over halfway through the season, and some of the pretenders have outed themselves. Ole Miss looks like they are out of the race with two conference losses after losing to LSU, and Oklahoma and USC are all but eliminated now as well.
Don’t forget about Syracuse with first year coach Fran Brown and transfer QB Kyle McCord, looking strong with just one loss so far, as they have been a pleasant surprise in my opinion. And even though Ohio State now has one loss, they are not eliminated from the playoff race yet, and the Big Ten continues to have three teams in the top 5 as Ohio State remained in at number 5. Because there are no divisions, the games become even more important with each passing week.
Week 7 record: 39-13 (.750)
Record after 7 weeks: 352-109 (.764)
If I had picked just the favorites, my record last week would have been 41-11.
Of those 41 winners, 35 covered the spread. My picks against the spread were 27-25.
That should help explain why I don’t bet on games.
My worst pick from last week was picking Maryland to cover against Northwestern, and best pick was nailing a fourth game this year by picking San Diego State over Wyoming by 27-24. I had another near miss with San José State over Colorado State by 30-23 instead of the 31-24 I picked.
Week 8 predictions
October 15 (3 games):
South Alabama (F -11.5) def. Troy, 34-20
Middle Tennessee (F -9.5) def. Kennesaw State, 35-21
Louisiana Tech (F -10.5) def. New Mexico State, 31-17
October 16 (2 games):
Western Kentucky def. Sam Houston (F -2.5), 34-30
Florida International (F -5.5) def. UTEP, 38-21
October 17 (2 games):
Marshall (F -9.5) def. Georgia State, 34-19
Boston College def. Virginia Tech (F -7), 31-24
October 18 (4 games):
Florida State def. Duke (F -3), 24-21
Purdue def. 2) Oregon (F -28), 35-28
13) BYU (F -9) def. Oklahoma State, 45-24
Nevada def. Fresno State (F -3), 27-24
October 19 (48 games):
Louisville def. 6) Miami (FL) (F -3), 34-31
10) Clemson (F -21.5) def. Virginia, 42-14
Nebraska def. 16) Indiana (-6), 35-30
19) Missouri (F -6.5) def. Auburn, 42-21
23) Army (F -17) def. East Carolina, 35-7
Wisconsin (F -6.5) def. Northwestern, 31-21
Rutgers (F -6) def. UCLA, 27-20
UConn (F -1.5) def. Wake Forest, 30-27
Arizona State def. Cincinniati (F -2.5), 27-24
Louisiana (F -4) def. Coastal Carolina, 31-26
South Carolina def. Oklahoma (F -2.5), 27-17
Eastern Michigan (F -2) def. Central Michigan, 31-28
Tulsa def. Temple (F -2.5), 28-24
7) Alabama (F -2.5) def. 11) Tennessee, 34-30
12) Notre Dame (F -7.5) def. Georgia Tech, 41-10
24) Michigan (F -1) def. 22) Illinois, 27-23
25) Navy (F -18) def. Charlotte, 38-17
California (F -10.5) def. NC State, 26-20
Houston def. Kansas (F -6.5), 30-23
Washington State (F -20) def. Hawaii, 43-17
Texas State (F -10) def. Old Dominion, 38-27
Ohio def. Miami (OH) (F -3), 24-21
Bowling Green (F -20.5) def. Kent State, 38-14
Western Michigan def. Buffalo (F -1.5), 28-21
Toledo def. Northern Illinois (F -1.5), 26-23
South Florida (F -14) def. UAB, 31-17
Florida Atlantic def. UTSA (F -4), 31-27
Tulane (F -23) def. Rice, 38-10
Maryland def. USC (F -7), 35-27
Colorado def. Arizona (F -3.5), 38-31
Texas Tech (F -6.5) def. Baylor, 35-24
New Mexico (F -2.5) def. Utah State, 48-41
San José State (F -11.5) def. Wyoming, 34-20
James Madison (F -10) def. Georgia Southern, 38-31
Mississippi State def. 14) Texas A&M (F -15), 34-27
Arkansas def. 8) LSU (F -2.5), 30-28
Vanderbilt (F -26.5) def. Ball State, 42-14
Arkansas State (F -6.5) def. Southern Miss, 32-21
5) Georgia def. 1) Texas (F -3.5), 41-38
9) Iowa State (F -13.5) def. UCF, 34-13
17) Kansas State (F -3) def. West Virginia, 31-24
Iowa (F -6.5) def. Michigan State, 34-20
Memphis (F -10.5) def. North Texas, 38-24
Florida (F -1.5) def. Kentucky, 24-21
21) SMU (F -15) def. Stanford, 45-14
Colorado State (F -7.5) def. Air Force, 27-20
UNLV (F -5.5) def. Oregon State, 37-23
TCU def. Utah (F -7), 28-24
As I went through the games this week, I was surprised to see how poor Kansas has fared from a W/L perspective, as they opened the season ranked in the top 20 and I picked them to appear in the Big 12 championship game. Because they are 1-5 already, it is difficult for them to get back to the top 2 in the conference. Additionally, I’m being extra bold in picking upsets this week since I’m aware of history involving those matchups in which I picked the underdog. Purdue has been successful four times in the last 5 years with three of those at home, and 5 years ago this week, the number 6 team in the country lost to team that was thought to have no business beating them (Illinois over Wisconsin, 24-23). Additionally, Tennessee lost the same week during the last time Michigan and Illinois played each other (November 19, 2022). In Tennessee’s defense, Alabama lost in Neyland stadium that season. I’ve typically been quite conservative with picking upsets, though Michigan has been victim of one already, and have dealt one themselves to USC. Alabama lost when it was least expected, and same with Notre Dame in week 2. Ohio State was favored in a highly ranked matchup last week and lost as well, so as we start the second half of the season, there will be more chaos.
Based on last week, if I had to pick what the CFP top 12 and the non-P4 team would be, Boise State would be the 12th seed if the season ended today. Including my predictions for this week, I’d have the following:
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- BYU
- Oregon
- Miami (FL)
- Notre Dame
- Kansas State (first team out)
Keep in mind that the above is not the seeding of the CFP as the top four conference champions get byes. Based on my predictions, those would be (in order) Georgia, Clemson, Iowa State, Oregon. The rest of the bracket as of these predictions:
5) Texas vs. 12) Boise State
6) Penn State vs. 11) Notre Dame
7) Alabama vs. 10) Miami (FL)
8) Ohio State vs. 9) BYU
Despite Boise State being the highest ranked non-P4 team, I will continue to pick Memphis to win games as I picked them to be the representative among non-P4 teams pre-season. I’m trying to stick with as many of my preseason picks as possible. I picked Georgia, Oregon, and Clemson as conference champions pre-season. The one preseason pick I can’t use here is Utah as Big 12 champion because it appears difficult to see them coming back from being 2 games behind both Iowa State and BYU and having also lost two conference games.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 