Instant Reaction from Week 2 + Predictions for Week 3 of the 2024 College Football Season

TEXAS IS BACK, FOLKS!

Michigan and Notre Dame are the two top-10 teams that fell on Saturday, and as expected, many think that the playoff hopes are over for Michigan, as well as Notre Dame. I do agree that the path to return to contention is much more difficult (very slim to no margin of error) for Notre Dame because they are an independent. Michigan has a very slim margin for error as long as they don’t lose another game in my opinion.

I have believed for most of the season thus far that there won’t be too many teams losing more than 2 games such that a 3+ loss team would have a shot. Florida State would have to win 11 straight to seal a spot essentially because they already have lost two conference games and would have little to no shot to get in as an at-large team with any more defeats. Other teams that already lost once entering this week that have a slim chance would be LSU, and with SMU losing as well, they are on a tight leash too now that they joined the Big 12. Nearing halftime, Kansas is down as well and would need to execute better after throwing a pick-six.

It’s an unpopular opinion that Michigan didn’t play as poorly as the score indicates. But I take that side because Michigan committed two turnovers that led to 10 points for Texas. If those turnovers didn’t happen, with everything else holding as it was, Michigan might not have gone for two instead after getting to 21-12 and would have tried to hold on defense to get one last shot to tie the game. Much like Clemson, Michigan looked awful as a highly ranked opponent compared to a top-3 opponent, and may suffer a similar fate in the polls come Sunday.

Surprisingly, Michigan only fell 7 spots, though they are deservedly ahead of Notre Dame for the moment even though Notre Dame has one of the best wins so far on the season. The best win so far belongs probably to Northern Illinois, the team that beat the Irish, though they are far from the only candidate.

Best pick from week 2: Iowa State over Iowa

Even though I nailed the score between Memphis and Troy, Iowa was favored by double digits and was defeated despite leading 13-0 at halftime.

Worst pick from week 2: Michigan over Texas

I could easily say picking Notre Dame was the worst take, but it was just about a unanimous opinion that Notre Dame would win. That wasn’t the case with Michigan, and as documented already, the score wasn’t close.

Week 2 record: 60-18
Total record through week 2: 147-31 (.826)

Week 3 predictions

September 12 (2 games):

Arizona State def. Texas State, 38-24
South Alabama def. Northwestern State, 41-13

September 13 (2 games):

UNLV def. Kansas, 38-31
20) Arizona def. 14) Kansas State, 35-28 (X)

September 14 (59 games):

4) Alabama def. Wisconsin, 31-17
13) Oklahoma State def. Tulsa, 41-14
South Carolina def. 16) LSU, 34-31
17) Michigan def. Arkansas State, 48-7
Illinois def. Central Michigan, 36-14
Florida State def. Memphis, 37-27
Louisiana Tech def. NC State, 30-23
Cincinnati def. Miami (OH), 33-21
Texas Tech def. North Texas, 39-27
24) Boston College def. 6) Missouri, 31-28
Buffalo def. UMass, 30-23
Coastal Carolina def. Temple, 38-17
9) Oregon def. Oregon State, 36-30
10) Miami (FL) def. Ball State, 41-14
15) Oklahoma def. Tulane, 35-20
18) Notre Dame def. Purdue, 31-17
Florida def. Texas A&M, 30-27
Michigan State def. Prairie View A&M, 38-7
Minnesota def. Nevada, 45-7
Washington def. Washington State, 29-24
Georgia Tech def. VMI, 38-10
Pittsburgh def. West Virginia, 27-24
Ohio def. Morgan State, 41-6
Iowa def. Troy, 28-7
Appalachian State def. East Carolina, 30-27
Arkansas def. UAB, 41-17
12) Utah def. Utah State, 38-14
Duke def. UConn, 35-14
North Carolina def. North Carolina Central, 48-3
Virginia Tech def. Old Dominion, 35-20
Florida International def. Florida Atlantic, 27-17
Liberty def. UTEP, 38-17
Georgia Southern def. South Carolina State, 35-21
Akron def. Colgate, 45-10
Charlotte def. Gardner-Webb, 37-23
5) Ole Miss def. Wake Forest, 52-17
Western Michigan def. Bethune-Cookman, 36-13
2) Texas def. UTSA, 45-7
Vanderbilt def. Georgia State, 34-23
Eastern Michigan def. Jacksonville State, 28-24
San José State def. Kennesaw State, 30-14
Western Kentucky def. Middle Tennessee State, 34-31
Hawaii def. Sam Houston State, 27-23
South Florida def. Southern Miss, 35-21
1) Georgia def. Kentucky, 48-3
23) Nebraska def. Northern Iowa, 41-10
Auburn def. New Mexico, 45-10
Mississippi State def. Toledo, 38-24
Indiana def. UCLA, 37-30
Baylor def. Air Force, 34-17
Colorado def. Colorado State, 45-31
TCU def. UCF, 41-38
Northwestern def. Eastern Illinois, 31-14
7) Tennessee def. Kent State, 59-7
Virginia def. Maryland, 30-27
Houston def. Rice, 25-21
BYU def. Wyoming, 27-13
California def. San Diego State, 31-17
Fresno State def. New Mexico State, 38-14

While I’ve picked the winner about 82% of the time so far this season, I haven’t studied the lower tier teams quite like most of the experts on TV. Whenever the spread or Over/Under is indicated, I use those to help make my predictions. Last year I had a roughly 70% correct prediction rate, so I ideally will use more judgment when picking games later in the season.