A new era dawns in college football, in many forms. New coaches have been on the job for a number of months now, and new details emerged this month about the sign-stealing scandal involving Michigan. More details will emerge down the line, but it is an unsettling situation that has ruffled many feathers.
On a bigger scale, this is the first year with super-large conferences, with the Big 10 taking the cake as an 18-team conference. Texas and Oklahoma are now SEC members, and the college football playoff field now accepts 12 teams instead of the four-team playoff that had been in place for the last 10 years.
By virtue of those bigger conferences, the playoff representation will be different and it had been agreed upon already that there will be 7 at-large teams for when the field goes from 12 to 14 teams later. For now, the 12-team field will give first-round byes for the top 4 conference champions and allow the top non-Power-4 team.
The top 25 was already released this month as well, with Georgia topping the polls. Texas and Michigan highlight the non-conference slate this season in a clash of two potential playoff teams in week 2, with Notre Dame and Texas A&M kicking off their seasons in a battle of teams who have both had Mike Elko on their coaching staffs.
On the topic of preseason rankings, there has been a widespread debate about whether they really matter. Many fans across the country think they don’t. However, I will play devil’s advocate and say that they do. Why is that? I’ll refer to the college football playoff as an example of why they are important.
In the 2023 playoff semifinals, both of the winners were ranked ahead of the teams they beat in the preseason (Michigan opened ranked no.2, Alabama at no.4, Washington at no.10 and Texas at no.11). In total, of the 20 semifinal games that were played in the four-team CFP format, the team that was ranked higher in the pre-season won 14 of those 20 games.
The higher-ranked preseason team losing among these 20 games were:
2014 season – Oregon (3) over Florida State (1), Ohio State (5) over Alabama (2)
2017 season – Georgia (15) over Oklahoma (6)
2019 season – LSU (6) over Oklahoma (4)
2020 season – Ohio State (4) over Clemson (1)
2022 season – TCU (NR) over Michigan (8)
Of the resulting championship games from these semifinals where the team ranked lower in the preseason won the games, the team ranked lower in the preseason won 2 of these 5 championship games (2014 Ohio State over Oregon, 2019 LSU over Clemson). In the other 5 championship games from the 4-team CFP era, the team ranked lower in the preseason won twice as well (both Clemson (preseason rank 2) over Alabama (preseason rank 1)).
To me, this is an indication that where you are ranked in the preseason does matter as 70% of the CFP semifinal games in the 4-team era were won by the team ranked higher in the preseason, and in total, two of every three CFP games were won by the team ranked higher in the preseason. This also is a credibility boost to those who vote in the polls, including College GameDay host Rece Davis.
To address the opposite point of view, however, it is important to acknowledge that of the 40 teams opening the season ranked inside the top 4, half of them failed to make the CFP. So even though it matters, it also suggests that you have to play the games, both of which are hot talking points when it comes to CFP selection.
It would be really interesting to see if this trend of preseason rankings in terms of performance in the CFP holds up in the 12 team playoff, and because of the number of playoff games, we only need to wait three years (33 total games) to get an equivalent number of playoff games played as the entire 10-year period of the 4-team format.
My preseason conference champion and playoff picks:
SEC – Georgia over Alabama
ACC – Clemson over Miami
Big Ten – Oregon over Michigan
Big 12 – Utah over Kansas
Top Non-Power-4 team – Memphis
12-team playoff field preseason prediction:
- Georgia (SEC Champion)
- Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
- Clemson (ACC Champion)
- Utah (Big 12 Champion)
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Michigan
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Penn State
- Memphis (Top Non-Power-4 team)
First two teams out: Florida State, Oklahoma
I’ve written the seedings this way because the conference champions get byes, though I vehemently deny that Clemson and Utah are better than Alabama and Ohio State. Keep in mind also that the first round games are held on-campus.
First Round – 12) Memphis at 5) Alabama, 11) Penn State at 6) Ohio State, 10) Notre Dame at 7) Texas, 9) Ole Miss at 8) Michigan
Second Round – 5) Alabama at 4) Utah, 6) Ohio State at 3) Clemson, 7) Texas at 2) Oregon, 8) Michigan at 1) Georgia
Semifinals – 5) Alabama vs. 1) Georgia, 6) Ohio State vs. 2) Oregon
Championship: 5) Alabama vs. 2) Oregon
Champion: Alabama
Kalen DeBoer knows how to beat Oregon, and is 3-0 against them since he became Washington’s coach prior to departing for Alabama, and this prediction is indicative of where the Big Ten and SEC are on the national landscape in college football compared to the rest of the country.
Weekly Predictions will resume next week starting with Week 0.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 