CFP Snubs

In the 10 years of the CFP era, there have been quite a few snubs over the years. The teams ranked 5-12 in the final rankings are included below in order (these would have been the CFP first-round matchups had there been 12 teams instead of 4; the CFP will expand to 12 teams starting with the 2024 season).

2014: Baylor, TCU, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Arizona, Kansas State, Georgia Tech

2015: Iowa, Stanford, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, TCU, Ole Miss

2016: Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, USC, Colorado, Florida State, Oklahoma State

2017: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Auburn, USC, Penn State, Miami (FL), Washington, UCF

2018: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, UCF, Washington, Florida, LSU, Penn State

2019: Georgia, Oregon, Baylor, Wisconsin, Florida, Penn State, Utah, Auburn

2020: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Florida, Cincinnati, Georgia, Iowa State, Indiana, Coastal Carolina

2021: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Baylor, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Utah, Pitt

2022: Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, Kansas State, USC, Penn State, Washington

2023: Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma

All but two of these teams had at least one loss, and those with exactly one loss were: 2014 Baylor, 2014 TCU, 2015 Iowa, 2015 Ohio State, 2017 Wisconsin, 2018 Ohio State, 2020 Texas A&M, 2021 Notre Dame. The two undefeated teams were 2018 UCF and 2020 Cincinnati.

2014 is difficult to rule because Baylor beat TCU headed despite TCU finishing with a better record, and Baylor lost to Michigan State to match 11-2 records. The big question: was Baylor better than Ohio State? Perhaps, were they better than Florida State? It’s hard to argue against an undefeated record even though FSU played down to their competition and many games were close, so it made sense for FSU to be there. I think Baylor needed to be undefeated to get in over Ohio State, which did not happen as Baylor was down 21 to TCU before winning and then lost to West Virginia the next week. TCU blowing a 21 point lead probably did them in as well, where if one of Baylor/TCU was undefeated instead of both being 11-1, Ohio State would have been left out. Having said that, I don’t think there were any snubs, as Ohio State winning 59-0 over a top-15 opponent is much stronger than TCU or Baylor doing what was expected to win 55-3 over Iowa State and 38-27 over Kansas State respectively.

In 2015, a 12-1 Iowa had to have been compared to against Oklahoma. Having said that though, I wasn’t sure that Iowa is not better than Oklahoma, and Iowa not only had a better record, Iowa’s loss was notably better too. Oklahoma lost to a 5-7 team. Ohio State played down to its competition in 2015, and their loss to Michigan State looking the way they did is probably what cost the Buckeyes, though I think Iowa was snubbed from a playoff opportunity. It was obvious that at the Rose Bowl, they weren’t as happy to be there instead of the CFP.

In 2016, Ohio State was the 1-loss team even though they were not a conference champion and did not look good offensively either. This was the first year a non-conference champion got in to the playoff, and it begs the question about what matters more: good wins? or eye test? The 10 years of the CFP have certainly shown some selective application of what’s important, and OSU had the wins in 2016. But they were not a complementary team the way they played offense, not to forget they lost to a team that gave up 40+ points in two different games. If eye test truly mattered, I don’t think Ohio State would have gotten in. Not to forget, they didn’t play like a team that belonged there. Luckily for them they got by the games they needed to, which, for them, included wins over a top-15 Oklahoma team that finished in the top 10, and wins against then-top-10 Nebraska and Michigan. Having said this, I think Penn State was a snub from the CFP even though they were a two-loss team. It could have set a precedent of two loss teams being good enough for the CFP even though it didn’t happen.

In 2017, Alabama was the second team to get in without winning a conference championship, though they proved the committee right by winning the national championship. Keep in mind, that the other power-5 team with one loss was Wisconsin. Why I’m pointing this out is, that Alabama’s one loss was by 12 points and Wisconsin was by 6. Alabama lost to a team that did not win their conference, while Wisconsin lost to its conference champion. With similar precedent existing already (PSU lost by 39 to Michigan and had two losses, OSU lost by 31 to Iowa and had two losses), the committee kept Ohio State out, as well as USC (two power 5 conference champions), though later situations in 2022 showed that they could have put Wisconsin in over Alabama despite losing to Ohio State. I think Wisconsin was a snub because they played all their games tougher than Alabama did when you put the win-loss record into perspective. Wisconsin at least finished the season with an all-time record of 13 wins so it was an unfortunate thing being left out of the CFP but they won a New Year’s Six bowl game as a nice consolation prize by beating Miami in their home stadium. UCF self-claimed a national championship in 2017 after beating Auburn, who, ironically, was Alabama’s only loss.

2018 was a crazy year for Ohio State, who finished with 1 loss but the one loss was by 29 points, and UCF couldn’t sniff the top four despite being undefeated for a second straight regular season. UCF was a tough team despite falling to Joe Burrow and LSU in an epic Fiesta bowl. Notre Dame was the third team to make the playoff without winning a conference title (Notre Dame is an independent), and would later repeat this feat in 2020, though so far, two of the three teams that made the CFP without winning a conference only combined for three points. Aside from UCF not getting the respect that it probably deserved, given Notre Dame losing to Clemson by 27 in the CFP semifinal (LSU lost to Alabama by 29 and UCF lost by 8 to LSU), I think the CFP committee got 2018 right.

2019 was also an easy one for the committee because a number of teams played themselves out of the picture, with Georgia losing by 27 to LSU, Utah losing by 22 to Oregon, and Oklahoma defeating Baylor, all on championship weekend. Oregon played itself out of the picture in week 13 by losing at Arizona State while being ranked 6th in the CFP rankings that week prior to winning the Pac-12. Oregon had a rosy finish anyway, beating Wisconsin in a nail-biter of nail biters by one point in the Rose Bowl. Three undefeated teams were in for the second straight year, as LSU dethroned Alabama for the SEC crown and Clemson and Ohio State both swept their conferences too. No snubs from 2019 in my opinion.

In 2020, the seasons were shorter than usual due to COVID-19, and Alabama and BYU were closest to playing the full allotment of games with 11 and 10, respectively. Texas A&M was the other team with 1-loss, and while BYU had only lost once as well, I thought they got under-appreciated, along with Cincinnati having no losses either. I don’t believe Cincinnati and BYU were snubbed, but at least should have been closer to the top 4 than they ended up being. If anyone was snubbed, I’d say it was Texas A&M, though their comparison to Notre Dame, who also had one loss, doesn’t favor them. Notre Dame had beaten everyone it played at least once, and Texas A&M didn’t play in a conference title game. It would have been difficult to justify Texas A&M being unequivocally better than Notre Dame, so no snubs in 2020.

In 2021, the first team out was Notre Dame at 11-1, and the last team in was Cincinnati at 13-0. Cincinnati beat Notre Dame head-to-head, so to me, there are no snubs from the 2021 season.

In 2022, two teams got in without winning their conference title, with TCU and Ohio State being 12-1 and 11-1 respectively. The next seven teams in the rankings all had two or more losses, so there were no snubs from 2022 either. USC could have led to a snub of TCU or Ohio State if they had won the Pac-12 instead.

In 2023, the first egregious snub to me took place with a 12-1 SEC Champion Alabama being in over an undefeated power 5 conference champion in Florida State. Like many, I disagree with this result, and I indicated it on this article the night before the reveal. Texas rightfully was in as a 12-1 power 5 conference champion, though it was surprising to see them be one of two teams that jumped up four spots to get into the playoff (Alabama is the other). I thought I was right in the logic and thought that the rankings week-to-week are the committee’s perception of how the teams are from top to bottom, and somehow all of Florida State, Texas, and Alabama winning their respective conference titles led to Alabama and Texas getting in over FSU, let alone closing the gap that was three ranks big between FSU and Texas before championship Saturday. Georgia perhaps was the other snub, dropping five spots after losing to Alabama. However, Alabama proved better than Georgia, and given that FSU was three spots behind Georgia coming into the championship games, it was clear that the gap closed between Georgia and FSU, hence them being ranked 6 (UGA) and 5 (FSU). It didn’t even dawn upon me that it subsequently closed the gap between FSU/Alabama/Texas, but I questioned last night whether that was really the case. In the committee’s eyes, it did, even though they all won. The games played indicated to me that FSU is above both Texas and Alabama because FSU is 13-0, and Texas had a head-to-head over Alabama. As I split hairs on this premise, Alabama beat LSU by 14 (common opponent with FSU), and Texas was 10 points better than Alabama. Georgia Tech is a common opponent between FSU and Georgia, and Georgia was only 8 points better while FSU won by 25. As a result, on paper, Texas is 24 points better than LSU and FSU beat LSU by 21, and FSU is at most 17 points better than Georgia on head-to-head. Alabama beat LSU by 14, so that math indicates FSU was 7 points better than Alabama. Because Georgia lost to Alabama by 3, FSU is anywhere between 10 and 17 points better than Georgia in this mathematical carousel. The combination of all of FSU/Alabama/Texas won conference championships along with this mathematical carousel suggests to me that FSU was the biggest snub of the CFP era to date. Don’t forget either that, again, Florida State was ranked 3 spots ahead of Texas before the championship game, especially with an unknown at quarterback between Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn.

In summary, I think the following teams can be considered snubs: 2015 Iowa, 2016 Penn State, 2017 Wisconsin, 2023 Florida State.

In more years than not, the committee did get the four best teams into the playoff, though my original thought is that 2023 is not one of those years. As more days have gone by, I have come to the sense that the gap between FSU/Alabama/Texas did indeed close shut based on the final top 4 reveal. With Alabama/Texas surpassing them because Alabama beat Georgia as the top team in the country at the time, it perhaps rightfully spelled doom for Florida State even though it should not have because they are an undefeated power 5 conference champion, along with the above math and past results suggesting otherwise as well.