CFP final prediction before the committee reveal

The conference championship games are in the books, and among the power 5 title games, the only teams to lose were from the two games featuring teams ranked in the top 8. Oregon lost to Washington and Georgia lost to Alabama.

The scenario that happened to lead to chaos is that only Georgia and Oregon lost. What does this lead to?

Michigan 13-0 (CC)
Washington 13-0 (CC)
Florida State 13-0 (CC)
Georgia 12-1
Texas 12-1 (CC)
Alabama 12-1 (CC)
Ohio State 11-1
Oregon 11-2

The two sure-fire teams are Michigan and Washington, and we know for sure Oregon is out because they are 11-2, and it remains to be seen how much a conference championship helps Texas and Alabama. It isn’t fair to put in Alabama and leave out Texas because it is improper judgment given head-to-head favors Texas.

I previously said that I thought Georgia might have a chance to stay in at the no.4 seed if they lost to Alabama along with Oregon losing to Washington. But Georgia turned the ball over in their own territory, had to play catch-up after surrendering 17 straight points to Alabama, and couldn’t stop the run, and didn’t look like one of the four best teams just before judgment day. They struggled to run the ball well too against Alabama’s defense. Aside from Oregon, all the other highly ranked teams won and that isn’t something Georgia was able to do.

Nothing from past years should factor into this year’s selection. It is unclear whether the injury to Georgia’s Brock Bowers is a serious enough blow to Georgia as a team. Same goes for the Jordan Travis injury for Florida State, and Xavier Worthy for Texas. We saw how it impacted the teams but one of FSU/UGA won and the other lost. That to me has to count for something, as Florida State is a conference champion and Georgia isn’t.

As far as eye-test is concerned, every team in play had a closer / tougher game than expected against somebody on their schedule. Michigan had it today against Iowa, Washington had it against Arizona State, Georgia had it against Georgia Tech, Florida State had it against Miami, or perhaps, against Florida, Texas had one against TCU, Alabama had one against South Florida, Ohio State maybe had one against Penn State, and Oregon maybe had one against Colorado.

Additionally, the gap in rankings heading into this week tells a lot about how the committee feels about a particular team, where Florida State was four spots ahead of Alabama this week with the teams as they were entering tonight. While you can argue that Alabama beat a better team, Florida State with Brock Glenn as the quarterback was considered to be the fourth best team when including both their results as well as the team as it stacked up. Alabama was ranked 8th this week. Is the gap closed because of their conference title triumphs? And does the gap close between Florida State and Georgia, for example, with FSU being a conference champ and UGA not?

It seems rather obvious that multiple dimensions are considered, two being eye test and resume, and another that I think needs to be considered is where they were ranked week to week. All of FSU, Texas, and Alabama are conference champions, and they were ranked 4, 7, and 8 this week, and most of the time that was so as well. Eye test alone it might move the needle for one or more of them, but all things considered, I don’t think it shows a big difference between the teams before and after. The results speak for themselves.

Other questions that will come up include: Is Georgia unequivocally better than one of the conference champions? It certainly isn’t the case with Ohio State so I believe the Buckeyes are eliminated too along with Oregon.

Michigan 13-0 (CC)
Washington 13-0 (CC)
Florida State 13-0 (CC)
Georgia 12-1
Texas 12-1 (CC)
Alabama 12-1 (CC)
Ohio State 11-1
Oregon 11-2

I’m using some process of elimination when considering the teams as they fare now. As I mentioned, Michigan and Washington are locks, and there are then four teams vying for the other two spots. There are three conference champions and Georgia. This is where the question of whether Georgia is unequivocally better than all of Florida State, Texas, and Alabama, and to me, they aren’t better than Alabama because they lost to them. As I mentioned earlier as well, I don’t think the results today really favor one of FSU/Texas/Alabama as the conference champions because they were ranked 4, 7, and 8 for most of the 5 weeks of rankings before tomorrow. FSU switched from 4 to 5 and then 4 again after Ohio State lost, and after Ohio State lost, they were deemed not better than Oregon, but better than Texas and Alabama. That marks a major line of demarcation that hurts Alabama, and now Georgia as well, because the team that was no.1 today is not better than the team that is no.8. Ohio State at no.6 was deemed better than that no.8 team and it is difficult to say that that no.8 team is better than Ohio State playing an extra game. I would then be unsurprised if it marked Georgia down immensely. Based on that, I eliminate Georgia.

Michigan 13-0 (CC)
Washington 13-0 (CC)
Florida State 13-0 (CC)
Georgia 12-1
Texas 12-1 (CC)
Alabama 12-1 (CC)
Ohio State 11-1
Oregon 11-2

Georgia’s loss also hurts them because Florida State is a conference champion and that isn’t something Georgia can say. Florida State being ranked 4 during three of the five rankings and Texas and Alabama respectively being at 7 and 8 all five weeks says something about how the committee viewed them even after the injury to FSU’s Jordan Travis.

I think, to put it to rest, Alabama is thus eliminated too, and there is your final four.

Michigan 13-0 (CC)
Washington 13-0 (CC)
Florida State 13-0 (CC)
Georgia 12-1
Texas 12-1 (CC)
Alabama 12-1 (CC)
Ohio State 11-1
Oregon 11-2

Georgia can’t say they’re unequivocally better than Texas because they don’t have a notably better eye test than Texas and Texas also beat the team that beat Georgia. Texas is better than Alabama because they proved it on the field, and the committee’s view on Alabama all up through this week was that it was below FSU and Texas, and FSU and Texas did not do anything to be moved down even though Alabama likewise won a conference title.

Final prediction:

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Texas

Match-ups:

1) Michigan vs. 4) Texas at the Rose Bowl
2) Washington vs. 3) Florida State at the Sugar Bowl

Remember, the top seed cannot be at a notable geographic disadvantage, so in this prediction set, Michigan is at the Rose Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl even though Texas is closer in both cases.