Predictions for Conference Championships in the 2023 College Football Season + Final Top 4 Scenarios

Michigan beat Ohio State for a third straight year and will vie for a third straight conference championship as well. Alabama escaped the wildest of Iron Bowls and the conference championships are set. With the help of a computer, UNLV and and Boise State will play for the Mountain West championship.

With the rankings revealed earlier Tuesday evening on 11/28, Ohio State fell from 2nd to 6th and is likely out of the playoff picture altogether, ahead of two possible conference championship teams in Texas and Alabama. That could be a sign of what’s to come even if Texas and Alabama both win.

However, the predictions this week will come first.

Regular Season record: 632-212 (.749)
Week 13 record: 52-13 (.800)

December 1 (2 games):

24) Liberty def. New Mexico State, 34-27
5) Oregon def. 3) Washington, 35-33 (x)

December 2 (8 games):

7) Texas def. 18) Oklahoma State, 38-24
Toledo def. Miami (OH), 27-17 (x)
UNLV def. Boise State, 31-28 (x)
1) Georgia def. 8) Alabama, 38-28 (x)
22) Tulane def. SMU, 28-24 (x)
Troy def. Appalachian State, 30-23
2) Michigan def. 16) Iowa, 52-7
4) Florida State def. 14) Louisville, 38-17

The Conference-USA and AAC title games are just as important as the others because they help decide the New Year’s Six match-ups as far as who from the Group of 5 will get to play in them. If Liberty wins while Tulane slips, then Liberty likely will get the spot. If Tulane wins, they will likely get it again for the second year in a row.

As it stands having completed the regular season, 8 teams are with 1 loss or less, and 7 of them are playing this weekend (the only one that isn’t is Ohio State). Two of them are playing each other in two separate match-ups as well (Oregon/Washington and Georgia/Alabama). Key what-if scenarios are as follows, though there are many (my opinions).

If Georgia wins, they are in. If Georgia loses, Alabama is the SEC champion, but as it stands now, they are behind the team in the top 8 that isn’t playing, and it suggests that the committee believes Ohio State as a non-division champion is better than a division champion in the SEC. Does a conference championship really make Alabama better than Ohio State? The committee seems to think Ohio State is unequivocally better than Alabama, so if Georgia loses, we can contend one of two things: 1) Alabama is thus better than Georgia but not better than Ohio State. This would also eliminate Georgia from the playoff. Or, 2) Georgia is still better than Alabama despite losing to them, and Alabama as a conference champion is better than an Ohio State non-champion. 1) seems to make more logical sense to me, however. A lot of contradictions are in play with that second contention, not to forget that other results will muddy the waters. However, thinking further as well, Georgia being ranked ahead of Texas by 6 spots suggests that even if Georgia lost, they are still a better team unequivocally than Texas, and that could additionally hurt Alabama.

If Michigan wins, they are in. If Michigan loses, Michigan is out. Iowa as an 11-2 team would not get into the top four.

If Washington wins, they are in. If Washington loses, Oregon is in. However, the loser is not necessarily out, as if it is a close game again, the loser could still sneak into the top four subject to all the results from championship weekend.

If Florida State wins, they are in. If Florida State loses, Florida State is out. Louisville as an 11-2 team would not jump into the top four, especially after losing to Kentucky last week.

If Texas wins, they are not guaranteed to be in, but get the title of Big 12 champion. However, if Texas loses, Alabama does reopen the possibility of two SEC teams getting in should they win over Georgia. However, right now, Ohio State as a 11-1 team is higher than Alabama is, so this works against Alabama whether they win the SEC or not.

If the top four teams all win, the CFP is set. Moreover, If four of the top 5 teams win, the CFP is set too as no.5 plays no.3 on Friday.

Let’s put the match-ups featuring the top 8 teams here: 1) UGA vs. 8) ALA, 2) MICH vs. 16) IOWA, 5) ORE vs. 3) WASH, 14) LOU vs. 4) FSU, and 18) OKST vs. 7) TEX. Now we have to compile the ideas of multiple of these teams losing and the others winning, starting with two and I will pick the top fours and order of any other teams in play as I see them based on the resulting scenarios. I’ve bolded who I think the fourth team actually would be when there are multiple teams in play for that last spot.

If UGA/MICH both lose only:
1) Winner of Pac-12 title, 2) Florida State, 3) Ohio State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (If 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR UGA OR Texas

If UGA/WASH both lose only:
1) Michigan, 2) Oregon, 3) Florida State, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR UGA OR Texas

If UGA/FSU both lose only:
1) Michigan, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Ohio State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR UGA OR Texas

If UGA/ORE both lose only:
1) Michigan, 2) Washington, 3) Florida State, 4) UGA OR Ohio State OR Texas

If UGA/TEX both lose only:
1) Michigan, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Florida State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State OR Alabama

If MICH/WASH both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Florida State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State OR Texas

If MICH/FSU both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Ohio State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Texas

If MICH/ORE both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Florida State, 4) Ohio State OR Texas

If MICH/TEX both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Florida State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State

If MICH/ALA both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Florida State, 4) loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State or Texas

If WASH/FSU both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State OR Texas

If WASH/TEX both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State

If WASH/ALA both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Florida State

If FSU/ORE both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State OR Texas

If FSU/TEX both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State

If FSU/ALA both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State OR Texas

If ORE/TEX both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Florida State

If ORE/ALA both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Florida State

If TEX/ALA both lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Florida State

If UGA/MICH/WASH all lose only: (This is where it starts to get REALLY dicey).
1) Florida State, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR UGA OR Texas

If UGA/MICH/FSU all lose only:
1) Winner of Pac-12 title, 2) Ohio State, 3) Georgia, 4) Texas OR Florida State OR loser of Pac-12 title game (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If UGA/MICH/ORE all lose only:
1) Washington, 2) Ohio State, 3) Georgia, 4) Texas OR Florida State

If UGA/MICH/TEX all lose only:
1) Winner of Pac-12 title , 2) Ohio State, 3) Georgia, 4) Florida State OR loser of Pac-12 title game (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If MICH/WASH/FSU all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Texas

If MICH/WASH/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State OR Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close)

If MICH/WASH/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State OR Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Michigan

If MICH/FSU/ORE all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Texas

If MICH/FSU/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State OR loser of Pac-12 title game (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If MICH/FSU/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Ohio State, 4) Texas OR loser of Pac-12 title game (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If MICH/ORE/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State

If MICH/ORE/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State OR Texas

If MICH/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Winner of Pac-12 title, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State OR loser of Pac-12 title game (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If WASH/FSU/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State

If WASH/FSU/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State OR Texas

If WASH/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Florida State

If FSU/ORE/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State

If FSU/ORE/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State OR Texas

If FSU/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Winner of Pac-12 title, 4) Ohio State OR loser of Pac-12 title (if 1-loss / Pac-12 title game is close)

If ORE/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Florida State

I’m trying to paint the picture I see with progressively more teams losing, though with Georgia/Alabama and Washington/Oregon playing each other, only up to 5 of the top 8 can lose this week. I’ve described so far that Michigan is surely out if they lose, and the same goes for both Florida State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama. I think Alabama is very much in the dark anyway because they’ve been held behind the other 1-loss teams the entire time. Winning a conference championship doesn’t suddenly change that narrative because the entire body of work is to be looked at, per the committee. If the expected outcomes happen, Alabama won’t sniff the CFP in most of the chaotic scenarios. You’ll see I’m not putting Alabama really in any consideration even with the chaos that could ensue unless all 5 power 5 conference title games end up in upsets.

Continuing on,…

If UGA/MICH/WASH/FSU all lose only:
1) Oregon, 2) Ohio State, 3) Texas, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR UGA

If UGA/MICH/WASH/TEX all lose only:
1) Oregon, 2) Ohio State, 3) Georgia, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Michigan

If MICH/WASH/FSU/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Michigan

If MICH/WASH/FSU/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Texas OR Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close)

If MICH/FSU/ORE/TEX all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Michigan OR Florida State

If MICH/FSU/ORE/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Texas OR Michigan

If MICH/FSU/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Michigan OR Florida State

If MICH/ORE/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Florida State

If WASH/FSU/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Ohio State

If FSU/ORE/TEX/ALA all lose only:
1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Washington, 4) Ohio State

Lastly, the most unlikely possible scenario is that 5 teams lose among the top 8, and there are, I believe, four combinations of that possible. Only here do I think the SEC has a legitimate chance to get two teams into the CFP.

If UGA/MICH/WASH/FSU/TEX all lose:
1) Oregon, 2) Ohio State, 3) Washington, 4) Alabama

If UGA/MICH/FSU/ORE/TEX all lose:
1) Washington, 2) Ohio State, 3) Alabama, 4) Georgia

If MICH/WASH/FSU/TEX/ALA all lose:
1) Georgia, 2) Oregon, 3) Ohio State, 4) Washington (if Pac-12 title game is close) OR Michigan OR Florida State

If MICH/ORE/FSU/TEX/ALA all lose:
1) Georgia, 2) Washington, 3) Ohio State, 4) Michigan OR Florida State

If all matchups go as expected, only two of the teams in the top 8 will lose and the playoff picture will be relatively simple, provided Georgia beats Alabama. I also think that there are really just three teams playing for the last spot (assuming things go as I expect), which are Oregon, Washington, and Florida State.

My final four after Saturday: 1) Georgia, 2) Michigan, 3) Oregon, 4) Florida State. First two out: Washington, Texas.

Another reason that the results are important is that aside from who gets in, the locations they play are also affected. I believe there is a rule from the CFP Committee that the top seed cannot be at a notable geographical disadvantage relative to its opponent, so if Georgia is the top seed, they will play at the Sugar Bowl instead of the Rose Bowl. If the top seed were to be Washington for whatever reason, Washington would play at the Rose Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl.

Lastly, I see a difficult path for Texas even though I see Texas winning, and, in my opinion, a Texas win would also eliminate Alabama, win or lose. All this to be decided on December 3. Let the championships begin!

Edit 12/9/23: I am including a prediction for Army/Navy below as well and will count this in the total score before releasing bowl game predictions. This is an important game since both Army and Navy are 5-6 right now.

Army def. Navy, 21-13

In advance of the Army/Navy game, I went 5-5 in the conference championship games (.500), bringing my total prediction record on the season to 637-217 (.746). A correct pick would actually have no bearing on my prediction accuracy over the course of the year, though an incorrect pick would bring it down to .745, though it is less than 0.1% drop due to .746 currently being rounded up from .7459.