Down to the last week of the regular season!
Week 12 record: 52-16 (.765)
Record after Week 12: 580-199 (.744)
While I am performing above the clip of the guest pickers on ESPN College GameDay in all (85-48; .639), I will later do a comparison of how I fared against the guest pickers based on the games they were given to pick. Among the guest pickers through week 12, five of them fared better percentage-wise than me, and all five of them previously played college football and four are currently in the NFL (of course almost all of them did play college football, but those that did better than me particularly have.). Only Joel McHale of them is not in the NFL but he was a walk-on at UW and is plenty knowledgeable. He commands respect, the most important tool, when discussing football (Take that, Ken Jeong!).
Because it is Thanksgiving weekend, more of the games will be on Thursday/Friday/Saturday instead of the Maction all being on the earlier days of the week. Bowling Green and Western Michigan will premier the week of action to finish the regular season, where the Falcons hope to guarantee themselves a winning record after bowling an 18-point lead against Interstate-75 rival Toledo.
Late last week, the NCAA upheld the postseason ban that James Madison and two others have to observe, so contrary to my post last week, Liberty does not fall into this category. However, it is surprising to me that they haven’t been ranked at all in the CFP rankings this season despite being one of six undefeated teams in the FBS at 11-0. As of right now, Tulane is in the pole position for the Group of 5 bid to the New Year’s Six bowl games, though Liberty and Toledo have plenty of say on that, provided they keep taking care of their business, since they have clinched spots in their respective conference championship games. As a matter of fact, Liberty will face New Mexico State for the Conference USA Title. Toledo will face Miami of Ohio in the MAC title game too. Louisville’s win over Miami sealed the ACC championship game as well.
Last week, Arizona showed just how strong a team they are despite having little to play for aside from a better bowl destination. Clemson isn’t backing down despite a subpar season and missing the playoff for the third straight year either. Georgia remains the top dog, seemingly, and Michigan and Ohio State again play for all the marbles in the Big Ten East. There is a three-way tie between Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State for the other Big 12 title game spot, as Texas is all-but-guaranteed the first spot. If all three of Oklahoma State/Oklahoma/Kansas State win or all three lose, would come down to whose out-of-conference opponents have the best combined record for them, which favors Kansas State at 22-11, with Oklahoma State’s at 16-17 and Oklahoma’s at 18-15. Like Oklahoma State, Texas’ out of conference opponents also combine currently for a 22-11 record, where only Oklahoma State’s schedule can surpass that. If one of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Kansas loses, and it is Oklahoma State, then Kansas State gets the other spot, and if either of the other teams are the only one to lose instead, head-to-head will determine who it is, where Oklahoma State has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Kansas State and Oklahoma. With Washington’s win at Oregon State last week, the Pac-12 championship game matchup is set for a rematch between Oregon and Washington. But both of them have bigger fish to fry. I will describe the projected/confirmed conference championship matchups when the full set of predictions is released, though the weekday games are here to start and I will update the rankings of the teams when the CFP rankings come out on November 21.
11/21 (2 games):
Bowling Green def. Western Michigan, 38-31
Eastern Michigan def. Buffalo, 27-17
11/23 (1 game):
12) Ole Miss def. Mississippi State, 37-23
11/24 (13 games):
13) Oklahoma def. TCU, 41-31
Nebraska def. 17) Iowa, 24-13
Miami (FL) def. Boston College, 31-20
Memphis def. Temple, 38-28
Toledo def. Central Michigan, 36-27
Ohio def. Akron, 27-14
23) Tulane def. UTSA, 31-24
Utah State def. New Mexico, 33-24
9) Missouri def. Arkansas, 31-17
Boise State def. Air Force, 27-23
7) Texas def. Texas Tech, 41-21
11) Penn State def. Michigan State, 35-10
6) Oregon def. 16) Oregon State, 41-27
11/25 (49 games):
3) Michigan def. 2) Ohio State, 48-19
10) Louisville def. Kentucky, 41-20
14) LSU def. Texas A&M, 45-38
Indiana def. Purdue, 31-24
Middle Tennessee def. Sam Houston, 31-19
Massachusetts def. UConn, 27-24
Duke def. Pittsburgh, 27-20
UCF def. Houston, 34-27
SMU def. Navy, 41-21
Troy def. Southern Miss, 35-21
Northern Illinois def. Kent State, 35-14
Miami (OH) def. Ball State, 26-13
Rice def. Florida Atlantic, 31-23
Syracuse def. Wake Forest, 25-20
East Carolina def. Tulsa, 23-21
North Texas def. UAB, 30-23
Old Dominion def. Georgia State, 31-27
Western Kentucky def. FIU, 41-27
Utah def. Colorado, 42-21
Louisiana def. UL Monroe, 38-24
UNLV def. San José State, 35-31
8) Alabama def. Auburn, 26-20 (F/OT)
15) Arizona def. Arizona State, 41-20
20) Oklahoma State def. BYU, 35-21
21) Tennessee def. Vanderbilt, 48-17
25) Liberty def. UTEP, 42-24
Northwestern def. Illinois, 23-17
Wisconsin def. Minnesota, 27-22
Rutgers def. Maryland, 30-26
Virginia Tech def. Virginia, 34-24
Appalachian State def. Georgia Southern, 37-30
James Madison def. Coastal Carolina, 42-28
Marshall def. Arkansas State, 27-24
4) Washington def. Washington State, 45-27
New Mexico State def. Jacksonville State, 35-33
5) Florida State def. Florida, 37-27
18) Notre Dame def. Stanford, 41-14
West Virginia def. Baylor, 38-24
South Alabama def. Texas State, 37-33
1) Georgia def. Georgia Tech, 48-20
24) Clemson def. South Carolina, 35-28
Kansas def. Cincinnati, 36-28
South Florida def. Charlotte, 28-20
19) Kansas State def. Iowa State, 35-24
22) NC State def. North Carolina, 32-28
Wyoming def. Nevada, 41-29
UCLA def. California, 42-35
Fresno State def. San Diego State, 38-31
Colorado State def. Hawaii, 43-31
After Michigan’s closer-than-expected win and the loss of Jordan Travis for Florida State for the season, it will be interesting to see how those two teams get placed. Washington I think will get bumped up because of their win at Oregon State, though it is compounded by FSU losing Jordan Travis as opposed to being the main reason. I think Florida State will fall to 5 while Oregon stays at 6, and the rest of the top 10 will remain the same in my opinion. Oregon State should not be penalized despite losing to Washington so I think they should stay at 11, though the main riser will be Arizona. I think they will get bumped ahead of Iowa at 16, so Iowa will fall to 17, and because Tennessee lost by 28 to Georgia, they will fall out of the top 25, and due to Kansas State winning at Kansas, Kansas will fall out too. North Carolina and Utah as well will also leave the rankings. I think Notre Dame will jump to 18, and I think Kansas State and Oklahoma State will round out the top 20. fTulane, in my mind, will jump up to 21, and I think this will be where we see Liberty for the first time in the CFP rankings. I think Toledo is deserving of being ranked as well, followed by NC State and SMU to round out the 25 teams. The CFP rankings so far this season have clearly shown the Group of 5 teams don’t get enough love in the rankings, let alone the CFP picture. To me, they should get more love so the conference championship games in the Group of 5 conferences have more marquee importance.
After watching the rankings reveal on Tuesday, it was an absolute shock to see Oregon State drop 5 spots while Tennessee got to stay in the rankings despite losing by 28 a week after losing by 29.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 