The first stage of the post-suspension sign stealing saga is in the books. Michigan 1, NCAA/Big Ten 0. The SEC Championship game is set, after Georgia took down Ole Miss, Alabama took down Kentucky, and Missouri dismantled Tennessee. Missouri’s win mathematically eliminated Tennessee as well as themselves unfortunately, because Georgia only has one conference game left and so does Alabama. Ole Miss is down 1.5 games with 1 conference game to play, and even if they both have the same conference record by the end of Week 14, Alabama has the tiebreaker, and Georgia also has a tiebreaker over Missouri. The case for the top spot in the CFP is difficult to come by, as Ohio State did what was needed to maintain the spot even though Georgia has a resume-building win to challenge it. Same goes for Michigan, though this debate will settle itself some after November 25.
UCF came out of nowhere to drub Oklahoma State by 45, and Texas Tech upset Kansas, though Texas had to hang out against TCU. This is getting real interesting real fast. I mentioned last week that 11 teams were in contention for the four playoff spots, and after yesterday, that number is down to 9, with Ole Miss and Penn State being eliminated from contention with two losses and Penn State is also eliminated from winning the Big Ten East, as both Michigan and Ohio State are 10-0 and have both beaten Penn State.
Washington made a major case to supplant Florida State in the 4th spot right now because of their win against a ranked team and Florida State had to scrape by to beat Miami.
I think the CFP Rankings on 11/14 will be as follows:
1) OSU, 2) UGA, 3) MICH, 4) WASH, 5) FSU, 6) ORE, 7) TEX, 8) ALA, 9) LOU, 10) ORST, 11) MIZZ, 12) OKLA, 13) MISS, 14) PSU, 15) LSU, 16) ARIZ, 17) ND, 18) IOWA, 19) UTAH, 20) TENN, 21) TULN, 22) UNC, 23) KSU, 24) SMU, 25) ISU
Keep in mind that five ranked teams lost on Saturday: Ole Miss, Penn State, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. Because of Oklahoma State and Kansas’ losses, Oklahoma is back in the mix for the Big 12 championship game again. Kansas State is still in contention for the conference title, and so is Iowa State. However, Texas is the best hope for a CFP bid from the Big 12.
Without further ado, the predictions for the earlier games this week are below, and the Saturday games will be included later this week.
Week 11 record: 44-19 (.698)
Record through Week 11: 528-183 (.743)
11/14 (3 games):
Toledo def. Bowling Green, 38-24
Western Michigan def. Northern Illinois, 35-21 (X)
Eastern Michigan def. Akron, 27-13
11/15 (2 games):
Ohio def. Central Michigan, 34-24
Miami (OH) def. Buffalo, 41-14
11/16 (1 game)
Boston College def. Pittsburgh, 26-23 (X)
11/17 (2 games):
UTSA def. South Florida, 45-37
Colorado def. Washington State, 46-41 (X)
11/18 (60 games):
3) Michigan def. Maryland, 41-10
8) Alabama def. Chattanooga, 56-7
10) Louisville def. Miami (FL), 36-27
12) Penn State def. Rutgers, 31-10
13) Ole Miss def. UL Monroe, 52-14
14) Oklahoma def. BYU, 41-17
24) Tulane def. Florida Atlantic, 28-20
Coastal Carolina def. Army, 27-23
Indiana def. Michigan State, 28-21
Mississippi State def. Southern Miss, 34-10
Northwestern def. Purdue, 27-20
Texas A&M def. Abilene Christian, 51-7
Sacred Heart def. UConn, 27-23
Navy def. East Carolina, 20-14
SMU def. Memphis, 33-27
Liberty def. UMass, 45-24
Jacksonville State def. Louisiana Tech, 30-23
Middle Tennessee def. UTEP, 29-24
Rice def. Charlotte, 26-24
James Madison def. Appalachian State, 34-27
Ball State def. Kent State, 27-14
Wyoming def. Hawaii, 31-14
17) Arizona def. 22) Utah, 27-20
West Virginia def. Cincinnati, 30-24
Duke def. Virginia, 27-20
North Texas def. Tulsa, 37-33
UAB def. Temple, 30-28
Arkansas State def. Texas State, 33-26
Colorado State def. Nevada, 34-20
1) Georgia def. 18) Tennessee, 41-20
16) Iowa def. Illinois, 20-13
19) Notre Dame def. Wake Forest, 41-7
20) North Carolina def. Clemson, 31-28
Western Kentucky def. Sam Houston, 35-21
USC def. UCLA, 33-28
Virginia Tech def. NC State, 24-20
TCU def. Baylor, 34-27
Troy def. Louisiana, 30-17
UNLV def. Air Force, 27-24
2) Ohio State def. Minnesota, 41-13
6) Oregon def. Arizona State, 38-14
23) Oklahoma State def. Houston, 34-27
Auburn def. New Mexico State, 35-7
Texas Tech def. UCF, 33-30
South Alabama def. Marshall, 28-24
Georgia Southern def. Old Dominion, 37-30
4) Florida State def. North Alabama, 52-7
California def. Stanford, 29-27
25) Kansas def. 21) Kansas State, 31-24
Utah State def. Boise State, 37-35
5) Washington def. 11) Oregon State, 35-31
9) Missouri def. Florida, 41-27
Arkansas def. Florida International, 41-10
Kentucky def. South Carolina, 27-24
Wisconsin def. Nebraska, 20-17
7) Texas def. Iowa State, 28-14
15) LSU def. Georgia State, 51-14
Georgia Tech def. Syracuse, 28-23
Fresno State def New Mexico, 41-17
San José State def. San Diego State, 38-24
As mentioned above, the SEC conference championship match-up is set already with Georgia vs. Alabama, and Louisville can lock up the ACC championship match-up with Florida State with a win at Miami this week. Iowa has clinched a share of the Big Ten west and can win it outright with a win on 11/18. Three other teams are in play for the Big Ten title game in the Big Ten west as well: Minnesota, Nebraska, and the winner of Northwestern/Illinois (Nebraska and Illinois are two teams that have already played each other and both still need to play Iowa, and Minnesota has already beaten Iowa). It is possible for these four teams to finish at 5-4 at the top of the Big Ten West, and if these four all share it, I think it would come down to who has the most head-to-head-wins against the rest of the teams, which would favor Minnesota since Minnesota has the head-to-head over Nebraska despite both Minnesota and Nebraska are 2-1 against the rest of the teams (Nebraska beat Illinois earlier this season). Iowa is 0-3 among these teams if all of them are 5-4 in conference play at the end because Iowa is 5-2 currently atop the Big Ten west, while 5 teams are currently at 3-4 in the Big Ten west. If Northwestern wins over Illinois and finishes in the logjam at 5-4, it gets even more dicey.
I think I have been missing that Liberty might also be in the same position as James Madison regarding postseason eligibility since Liberty hasn’t been ranked at all so far in the CFP rankings, so even if Liberty is at the top, they will not be in position for the New Year’s Six bid from the Group of 5.
As of now, Tulane is still the top candidate for the New Year’s Six bid from the Group of 5, and SMU is the nearest challenger. SMU and Tulane don’t play each other, so rankings will be huge provided both have the same record. More to come on Tuesday and on Saturday!
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 