Happy Veterans Day to those who have served the United States of America, and to the Veterans who serve / have served in the military to defend their countries.
Maryland continues to slide after a torrid start, and there was surprisingly no change among the top 8 teams in the CFP rankings and their order. Oklahoma is now out of the CFP picture along with the Big 12 championship picture, as Oklahoma State and Texas are now in the drivers’ seats for the collision course in Dallas on December 2. Arizona is coming alive, and while it won’t be a New Year’s Six bowl for them, they have a 10-win season still in play at 6-3 currently. Air Force is out of the New Year’s Six picture after getting run into the ground by Army, and James Madison continues to petition for a bowl bid, where this would put them in position to be the New Year’s Six participant in their second year on the FBS level if it were granted. As of right now, Tulane has that distinction.
The Saga for Michigan and their sign-stealing syndicate continues, with no imminent end yet. This is the key stretch for them where the season is defined by these last three games. Every game will need to be one they get up for, as Penn State has aspirations of the Big Ten East along with Ohio State, not to forget Michigan, and Maryland is fighting for bowl eligibility. Given the way things have been for the Terrapins, they face possibly losing their last 7 games after starting 5-0 and missing the postseason altogether.
Week 10 record: 45-20 (.692)
Record through Week 10: 484-164 (.747)
At the time this was written, the games from the week up through Thursday were already played, and the predictions I made for them are below:
11/7 (3 games):
Northern Illinois def. Ball State, 38-21 (X)
Central Michigan def. Western Michigan, 34-30 (X)
Ohio def. Buffalo, 36-28
11/8 (3 games):
Miami (OH) def. Akron, 41-21
Bowling Green def. Kent State, 33-28
Toledo def. Eastern Michigan, 35-24
11/9 (2 games):
11) Louisville def. Virginia, 45-21
Louisiana def. Southern Mississippi, 38-28 (X)
The rest of the games:
11/10 (2 games):
SMU def. North Texas, 39-27
UNLV def. Wyoming, 37-30
11/11 (55 games):
3) Michigan def. 10) Penn State, 30-23
8) Alabama def. Kentucky, 41-24
16) Kansas def. Texas Tech, 42-28
23) Tulane def. Tulsa, 27-17
Holy Cross def. Army, 24-21
Indiana def. Illinois, 21-20
Nebraska def. Maryland, 30-10
South Carolina def. Vanderbilt, 41-14
Boston College def. Virginia Tech, 33-29
Clemson def. Georgia Tech, 34-23
South Florida def. Temple, 38-31
Liberty def. Old Dominion, 42-21
21) Arizona def. Colorado, 34-17
James Madison def. UConn, 34-7
Wake Forest def. NC State, 25-21
Memphis def. Charlotte, 51-21
Appalachian State def. Georgia State, 34-30
Troy def. UL Monroe, 35-14
25) Kansas State def. Baylor, 38-20
Louisiana Tech def. Sam Houston, 28-21
Utah State def. Nevada, 35-21
4) Florida State def. Miami (FL), 38-14
18) Utah def. 5) Washington, 34-31
14) Missouri def. 13) Tennessee, 30-28
15) Oklahoma State def. UCF, 41-27
22) Iowa def. Rutgers, 17-13
Middle Tennessee def. Florida International, 31-21
Minnesota def. Purdue, 27-23
Wisconsin def. Northwestern, 28-21
New Mexico State def. Western Kentucky, 31-27
Syracuse def. Pittsburgh, 20-17
UAB def. Navy, 27-24
Coastal Carolina def. Texas State, 30-27
Auburn def. Arkansas, 30-24
California def. Washington State, 26-14
Florida Atlantic def. East Carolina, 26-20
South Alabama def. Arkansas State, 31-20
12) Oregon State def. Stanford, 38-28
9) Ole Miss def. 2) Georgia, 30-27
17) Oklahoma def. West Virginia, 38-24
Houston def. Cincinnati, 31-21
Georgia Southern def. Marshall, 27-20
San Diego State def. Colorado State, 28-25
1) Ohio State def. Michigan State, 55-10
7) Texas def. TCU, 31-17
19) LSU def. Florida, 35-30
Texas A&M def. Mississippi State, 30-13
UTSA def. Rice, 35-19
24) North Carolina def. Duke, 37-21
Arizona State def. UCLA, 27-20
Boise State def. New Mexico, 37-27
Iowa State def. BYU, 31-17
6) Oregon def. USC, 41-30
Fresno State def. San José State, 31-24
Air Force def. Hawaii, 35-14
As I described earlier for Michigan / the Big Ten East that this is a season-defining game, they aren’t alone in that context. The SEC East is also very much up-for-grabs, even though Georgia has a two game lead on Missouri. Additionally, Tennessee still has to play Georgia, and the contest between Missouri and Tennessee will determine who is still in contention in the SEC East, especially if Georgia is to fall to Ole Miss. As a result, the SEC West is also up for grabs if Ole Miss stays within striking distance still of Alabama, as Alabama needs to lose twice more than Ole Miss does down the stretch to relinquish control of the division. The Pac-12’s playoff hopes are made stronger as long as Washington remains an undefeated team and Oregon stays at one loss, though if Washington is to stumble before the conference championship game, Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope for the top four. If Penn State beats Michigan, especially in a tight game, the Big Ten still would have three teams in play for the CFP. The same cannot be said for the SEC if Ole Miss were to beat Georgia, because that would lead to one of Alabama/Ole Miss/Georgia having two losses by the time the SEC Champion is decided, though two of the three could still be alive for the top four.
My predictions aside, if the season ended today, the Power 5 conference match-ups would be:
SEC – 8) Alabama vs. 2) Georgia
Big Ten – Winner of 1) Ohio State / 3) Michigan vs. 22) Iowa
Big 12 – 15) Oklahoma State vs. 7) Texas
Pac-12 – 6) Oregon vs. 5) Washington
ACC – 11) Louisville vs. 4) Florida State
I noted in a previous blog post that there were at least 10 teams in play for the top four, and as of today, that number stands at 11 because there are 11 teams with 1 loss or less. Having said that though, it will be difficult to sustain that. It will fall at least to 10 if Michigan beats Penn State, and subsequently to 9 of Georgia beats Ole Miss. Going down the list, then to 8 if USC beats Oregon, and 7 if TCU beats Texas. This is important for Texas particularly because Texas it the last 1-loss team remaining in the Big 12 and the conference’s best hope for the CFP. Additionally, as long as Alabama continues to win, it will also boost Texas’ case as long as Texas is still at one loss. It would be a travesty if Texas were left out while Alabama is in with both as conference champions, though if anything else happens it’s a moot point.
On the other hand, the CFP Committee’s job is made easier if undefeated teams start losing, as teams with 1-loss subsequently will knock each other out of the CFP picture as a result. As noted earlier, if Washington falls, it makes life more difficult for the Pac-12 to have a participate in the playoff. If Florida State were to lose a game before playing Louisville in the ACC title game, it could spell doom for the ACC in terms of the playoff. If Michigan lost to Penn State, it could spell doom for Michigan if they, in turn, lost to Ohio State, and would be a disappointing end to an otherwise talented team. Michigan beating Penn State would conversely knock Penn State out of the race too. All this to unfold before our eyes.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 