It truly indeed was a test for Oklahoma, and they failed. They suffered a loss sooner than expected (pun intended) and their initial CFP ranking will suffer as a result too. I continue to underestimate Georgia, and I clearly underestimated Oregon this week too. USC finally got back into the win column even though their defense is still as porous as a sponge. Kansas is legit too. UNC’s defense is porous as well and Oregon State probably ruined their shot at a CFP appearance too.
This week and the remainder of the season will be a bit different since the CFP rankings are coming out in terms of my predictions posts even though the teams that play earlier in the week are unranked, and I will post the remainder of the predictions later in the week. Additionally, it is clear that the CFP rankings will be different from what I expected based on last week’s predictions because Georgia won, Oklahoma lost, and Oregon won. I still think Michigan will be ranked 1, though Oregon might jump into the top 4 even though there are other undefeated teams. Georgia made a case to be in the top 4 for sure (not that it wasn’t already there). It will generate plenty of uproar even though a lot can and WILL change over the next five weeks as we narrow down to the official playoff bracket on December 3.
Week 9 record: 35-19 (.648)
Record after week 9: 439-144 (.753)
October 31 (2 games):
Central Michigan def. Northern Illinois, 28-23
Toledo def. Buffalo, 38-17
November 1 (2 games):
Bowling Green def. Ball State, 34-27
Akron def. Kent State, 30-27
November 2 (3 games):
Texas Tech def. TCU, 37-27
Duke def. Wake Forest, 31-17
Troy def. South Alabama, 38-31
November 3 (2 games):
Boston College def. Syracuse, 33-14
Colorado State def. Wyoming, 24-21
November 4 (56 games):
1) Ohio State def. Rutgers, 49-14
7) Texas def. 23) Kansas State, 38-31
10) Ole Miss def. Texas A&M, 41-31
Clemson def. 15) Notre Dame, 28-24
17) Tennessee def. UConn, 51-14
Florida def. Arkansas, 33-21
Wisconsin def. Indiana, 31-17
Nebraska def. Michigan State, 24-7
South Carolina def. Jacksonville State, 37-10
North Carolina def. Campbell, 52-7
Kennesaw State def. Sam Houston, 38-34
18) Utah def. Arizona State, 30-15
Georgia Tech def. Virginia, 45-43 (3OT)
Navy def. Temple, 28-21
25) Air Force def. Army, 31-0
Florida Atlantic def. UAB, 27-24
UTSA def. North Texas, 41-34
Memphis def. South Florida, 38-20
Arkansas State def. Louisiana, 34-26
2) Georgia def. 12) Missouri, 38-17
4) Florida State def. Pittsburgh, 41-7
9) Oklahoma def. 22) Oklahoma State, 48-28
Maryland def. 11) Penn State, 35-31
13) Louisville def. Virginia Tech, 35-21
24) Tulane def. East Carolina, 33-7
Minnesota def. Illinois, 24-20
Northwestern def. Iowa, 24-17
Massachusetts def. Merrimack, 41-30
Baylor def. Houston, 34-31
Cincinnati def. UCF, 31-28
James Madison def. Georgia State, 35-24
Old Dominion def. Coastal Carolina, 30-29
Auburn def. Vanderbilt, 28-10
Tulsa def. Charlotte, 27-14
Southern Miss def. UL Monroe, 28-24
Nevada def. Hawaii, 38-24
Texas State def. Georgia Southern, 36-33
6) Oregon def. California, 42-14
Liberty def. Louisiana Tech, 41-17
Middle Tennessee State def. New Mexico State, 33-27
Appalachian State def. Marshall, 30-23
UNLV def. New Mexico, 41-20
21) Kansas def. Iowa State, 42-24
West Virginia def. BYU, 31-24
Utah State def. San Diego State, 26-21
3) Michigan def. Purdue, 45-7
20) USC def. 5) Washington, 34-20
Kentucky def. Mississippi State, 27-23
SMU def. Rice, 38-33
14) LSU def. 8) Alabama, 38-31
NC State def. Miami (FL), 28-20
Western Kentucky def. UTEP, 31-26
Stanford def. Washington State, 30-28
16) Oregon State def. Colorado, 38-28
Fresno State def. Boise State, 28-27
Arizona def. 19) UCLA, 27-24
Based on the results from last week, especially with the losses by Oklahoma, Utah, and Oregon State, I think there will be more congestion in the bottom of the top. 10 with SEC teams. Kansas will certainly be there as well. As far as the actual rankings are concerned, I think the following will be the order:
1) Georgia, 2) Ohio State, 3) Michigan, 4) Washington, 5) Florida State, 6) Oregon, 7) Texas, 8) Alabama, 9) Ole Miss, 10) Oklahoma, 11) Notre Dame, 12) Penn State, 13) Kansas, 14) Oregon State, 15) LSU, 16) Missouri, 17) Kansas State, 18) Utah, 19) Air Force, 20) UCLA, 21) Tulane, 22) Louisville, 23) Tennessee, 24), Iowa, 25) USC
Actual initial CFP Ranking order is: 1) Ohio State, 2) Georgia, 3) Michigan, 4) Florida State, 5) Washington, 6) Oregon, 7) Texas, 8) Alabama, 9) Oklahoma, 10) Ole Miss, 11) Penn State, 12) Missouri, 13) Louisville, 14) LSU, 15) Notre Dame, 16) Oregon State, 17) Tennessee, 18) Utah, 19) UCLA, 20) USC, 21) Kansas, 22) Oklahoma State, 23) Kansas State, 24) Tulane, 25) Air Force.
We are seeing impacts of expansion already before the additions of four Pac-12 teams to the Big Ten starting in 2024, as Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State before the end of the season for the first time in many years. They played the last week of the regular season each of the last 8 years, and are getting some previews of future conference play when Washington tries to keep its unbeaten record against USC.
Despite being undefeated, James Madison will not be ranked for the rest of the season due to their ineligibility. as part of the promotion to FBS football from the FCS. It will be a tight race for the New Year’s six team coming from the Group of 5, where the pre-CFP rankings indicate that Air Force is the highest ranked Group of 5 team. Tulane is hot on their heels. I also had to come to my senses about Georgia, as there was a reason they have been ranked no.1 for this many straight weeks despite not looking good in the process. I was part of the group that gave them the negative rat poison about the eye test. They squashed that against Florida and chomped that poison to bits.
If the season ended today, the following conference championship matchups would be in play:
SEC – 1) Georgia vs. 8) Alabama
Big 12 – 7) Texas vs. 10) Oklahoma
Big Ten – 2) Michigan vs. Minnesota
ACC – 15) Louisville vs. 4) Florida State
Pac-12 – 6) Oregon vs. 5) Washington
AAC – SMU vs. 21) Tulane
Conference USA – Liberty vs. Jacksonville State
MAC – Toledo vs. Miami (OH)
Mountain West – Fresno State vs. 17) Air Force
Sun Belt – Troy vs. Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is currently second in the Sun Belt East division, and since James Madison is ineligible for the post season, they are not able to play in the conference title game either. Michigan and Ohio State still need to play, though Michigan is currently ranked ahead of Ohio State.
To me, the question then remains about how much of a negative the committee views the Louisville loss to Pittsburgh if there are a plethora of teams with 1 loss or less. The loser of Texas/Oklahoma II is out due to having multiple losses if they meet again, though Texas makes the case of beating everyone on their schedule if they win over Oklahoma. As a result, the teams vying for the last spot would be: Georgia, Michigan/OSU loser, Louisville/Florida State, Washington. Keep in mind, that Georgia/FSU/Washington/Loser of Michigan-OSU are all being evaluated coming off a loss as well in this scenario. At worst, as a consolation, the losers of the conference title games would likely be going to New Year’s Six Bowls.
In other words, if Florida State lost the ACC title game to a 1-loss Louisville, would it be a similar situation to TCU last year where they held steady at 3 despite losing the conference title game, and would Louisville have enough respect from the committee to be in the top 4 with a conference title? And would any of Georgia, the Michigan/OSU loser, Florida State, and Washington be deemed unequivocally better than Louisville? All that to be determined on December 3.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 