Predictions for Week 9 of the 2023 College Football Season + Misses from Week 8

The top 10 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State was a little bit of a dud, as I thought the offenses would score more. But Ohio State held its ground to stay in contention in the Big Ten East. Penn State isn’t out of it though, but they need a lot of help from Ohio State and Michigan, of which will be difficult to find. Utah is not to be underestimated, as Bryson Barnes is truly noble at what he does. USC is firmly out of the playoff picture, and Nick Saban best not be messed with in terms of giving his team rat poison.

Week 8 record: 31-15 (.674)
Record through Week 8: 404-125 (.764)

October 24 (2 games):

Louisiana Tech def. New Mexico State, 29-26
Liberty def. Western Kentucky, 35-31

October 25 (2 games):

Jacksonville State def. Florida International, 34-20
UTEP def. Sam Houston State, 26-17

October 26 (2 games):

Virginia Tech def. Syracuse, 27-20
Georgia State def. Georgia Southern, 33-31

October 27 (1 game):

Florida Atlantic def. Charlotte, 31-14

October 28 (47 games):

4) Florida State def. Wake Forest, 38-10
6) Oklahoma def. Kansas, 42-28
10) Penn State def. Indiana, 48-13
Army def. UMass, 27-17
Boston College def. UConn, 37-23
Northwestern def. Maryland, 26-24
Texas A&M def. South Carolina, 33-27
Kansas State def. Houston, 34-24
UCF def. West Virginia, 35-28
SMU def. Tulsa, 36-27
Eastern Michigan def. Western Michigan, 24-21
Clemson def. NC State, 27-20
Memphis def. North Texas, 38-31
Florida def. 1) Georgia, 26-23
7) Texas def. BYU, 30-17
13) Utah def. 8) Oregon, 38-24
14) Notre Dame def. Pittsburgh, 31-17
18) Louisville def. 20) Duke, 30-23
Mississippi State def. Auburn, 24-20
Minnesota def. Michigan State, 27-17
Nebraska def. Purdue, 28-20
Miami (FL) def. Virginia, 34-17
Baylor def. Iowa State, 24-21
UTSA def. East Carolina, 33-14
Appalachian State def. Southern Mississippi, 37-14
Ohio def. Miami (OH), 28-21
22) Tulane def. Rice, 34-20
24) USC def. California, 45-38
Arkansas State def. UL Monroe, 29-26
South Alabama def. Louisiana, 35-21
Wyoming def. Boise State, 28-24
Coastal Carolina def. Marshall, 27-22
5) Washington def. Stanford, 45-14
19) Air Force def. Colorado State, 35-14
21) Tennessee def. Kentucky, 30-27
Troy def. Texas State, 28-27
3) Ohio State def. Wisconsin, 31-17
12) Ole Miss def. Vanderbilt, 38-24
Colorado def. 23) UCLA, 41-34
17) North Carolina def. Georgia Tech, 37-27
25) James Madison def. Old Dominion, 38-21
Washington State def. Arizona State, 31-21
Oklahoma State def. Cincinnati, 30-23
11) Oregon State def. Arizona, 34-30
New Mexico def. Nevada, 27-20
UNLV def. Fresno State, 30-28
San José State def. Hawaii, 41-27

I was most torn on whether to pick the upset between Wisconsin and 3) Ohio State. Ultimately I chose to roll with the Buckeyes in that matchup. In total, there are five top 10 teams that are playing away from home against an unranked team, where these are conventionally called “trap games”. These are important because they will drastically impact the initial CFP rankings for this season. I mentioned last week that I don’t think Georgia will be ranked at the top of the CFP rankings, and that especially won’t be the case if they fall to Florida. The five top 10 teams on the road against unranked teams this week are Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, Oklahoma, and Penn State (ranked 3-6, and 10 respectively). Based on this week’s results that I predict will happen, I don’t see any major upsets, though the notable movement will be by the winner of Utah and Oregon. Because North Carolina took a hit with their loss to Virginia, they will be farther back in the rankings but still be ranked. That said, I think the initial playoff rankings after this past week, combined with these predicted outcomes, is as follows.

1) Michigan, 2) Ohio State, 3) Washington, 4) Florida State, 5) Oklahoma, 6) Utah, 7) Texas, 8) Penn State, 9) Alabama, 10) Georgia.

I anticipate Ole Miss will be on the outskirts of the top 10, and lead the teams ranked 11-25.

12) Oregon State, 13) Oregon, 14) Notre Dame, 15) LSU, 16) Florida, 17) North Carolina, 18) Louisville, 19) Air Force, 20) Missouri, 21) Tennessee, 22) Tulane, 23) Iowa, 24) James Madison, 25) Liberty.

It’s a scalding hot take that Georgia will lose to Florida, though I think it would be less hot, regardless, if Georgia wasn’t at the top of the CFP rankings on October 31. Coincidentally, that is Halloween night. I doubt that the committee will be seeing ghosts, however.

It is going to be a major debate on who should be ranked at the top, and who should be where in the initial rankings, even though just about everything will sort itself out as Michigan has to play both Ohio State and Penn State, and the road ahead is grueling for every team in the top 10. If Georgia does lose this week, there would be 7 unbeaten teams left in college football (the top 5 + James Madison and Liberty). Otherwise, the top 6 would all be unbeaten teams in the power 5. As the playoff expands to 12 teams next season, I can imagine that the G5 teams will get more love, especially as James Madison will be bowl eligible for the first time in 2024.