Week 7 had just about everything you could imagine, from snoozers to wild finishes to expected outcomes. Stanford probably had the best comeback of the week, and Washington and Oregon had the best game. I did not expect the Buffs to fall apart the way they did, and I also expected Iowa and Wisconsin to be less boring than it actually was, aside from one play. Air Force makes its debut this season in the top 25, arguably the biggest surprise to me this season.
There are a few big games this week, including a top-10 showdown in Columbus as Ohio State welcomes Penn State to town, and a top-20 showdown in Tuscaloosa as Alabama welcomes one of the two teams that beat them last year.
I’ve realized that, of Alabama’s 6 national championships they’ve won with Nick Saban, four of them came when Alabama lost just one game, in 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2017. They’ve also had two other seasons where they lost just one game but lost the national championship game, in 2016 and 2018. The common denominator among those four championship teams that lost only one game all season is that every one of those losses was to someone in the SEC West. In 2016 and 2018, they lost to Clemson. Additionally, in 2010, 2013, 2014, 2019, 2021, and 2022, Alabama lost one game to a team in the SEC West, but lost at least one other game and failed to win the national championship. Because Alabama’s only loss so far is to Texas, a team not in the SEC West, my hot take is that Alabama will not win the national championship this season. Coach Saban, there’s your rat poison for the week. Without further ado, onto this week’s predictions.
Week 7 record: 37-18 (.673)
Record through Week 7: 373-110 (.772)
October 17 (3 games):
Liberty def. Middle Tennessee, 37-21
Western Kentucky def. Jacksonville State, 38-31
South Alabama def. Southern Miss, 42-21
October 18 (2 games):
Florida International def. Sam Houston State, 28-21
New Mexico State def. UTEP, 30-23
October 19 (2 games):
Rice def. Tulsa, 34-30
James Madison def. Marshall, 42-27
October 20 (1 game):
SMU def. Temple, 38-17
October 21 (46 games):
3) Ohio State def. 7) Penn State, 31-21
6) Oklahoma def. UCF, 48-20
22) Air Force def. Navy, 28-7
Mississippi State def. Arkansas, 31-24
Rutgers def. Indiana, 34-17
Georgia Tech def. Boston College, 33-29
Baylor def. Cincinnati, 26-23
Memphis def. UAB, 38-28
Ohio def. Western Michigan, 35-23
East Carolina def. Charlotte, 31-7
Georgia Southern def. UL Monroe, 34-28
Bowling Green def. Akron, 27-13
9) Oregon def. Washington State, 45-7
17) Tennessee def. 11) Alabama, 34-27
20) Missouri def. South Carolina, 38-24
23) Tulane def. North Texas, 44-24
24) Iowa def. Minnesota, 16-6
Illinois def. Wisconsin, 23-17
Northwestern def. Nebraska, 24-20
South Florida def. UConn, 28-25
Pittsburgh def. Wake Forest, 27-23
Oklahoma State def. West Virginia, 30-23
Central Michigan def. Ball State, 20-10
Northern Illinois def. Eastern Michigan, 30-17
Buffalo def. Kent State, 33-23
8) Texas def. Houston, 51-17
Toledo def. Miami (OH), 37-34
UTSA def. Florida Atlantic, 30-27
New Mexico def. Hawaii, 33-31
10) North Carolina def. Virginia, 41-14
13) Ole Miss def. Auburn, 38-24
Texas Tech def. BYU, 37-14
Kansas State def. TCU, 31-25
Appalachian State def. Old Dominion, 34-20
Coastal Carolina def. Arkansas State, 38-28
UNLV def. Colorado State, 35-30
San José State def. Utah State, 38-34
2) Michigan def. Michigan State, 35-14
4) Florida State def. 16) Duke, 38-24
19) LSU def. Army, 52-14
18) USC def. 14) Utah, 34-23
Miami (FL) def. Clemson, 26-21
Louisiana def. Georgia State, 33-30
San Diego State def. Nevada, 34-10
5) Washington def. Arizona State, 47-14
Stanford def. 25) UCLA, 31-28
While USC is still very much alive in both the Pac-12 championship picture and the college football playoff picture. they have virtually no margin for error, and have to look good doing so. Perhaps this is so stringent that they can’t afford to have a turnover, let alone a fumble, for the rest of the season if they want to get back into the top four. Notre Dame is idle, and while their win over USC is dampened by how bad the Trojans have looked combined with Notre Dame being a two-loss team, still plays a pivotal role in the remainder of the playoff picture.
While there are still two more weeks before the first playoff rankings are released, It is up for debate who gets placed where. Georgia hasn’t looked like a clear-cut no.1 team in the country, and it remains to be seen how much weight Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame really has, as well as how Ohio State does against Penn State. Other teams’ wins and losses, including their opponents’ wins and losses, I anticipate, will be a factor too. While my predictions here have Ohio State winning, one of them will surely by in the top four at the first rankings. As of now, given how things have played out through week 7, I believe the top four will be: 1) Michigan, 2) Ohio State, 3) Florida State, 4) Washington.
Needless to say, I think the rest of the top 10 will be loaded as well, where I think 5-10 will be: 5) Georgia, 6) Oklahoma, 7) Texas, 8) Oregon, 9) North Carolina, 10) Ole Miss.
It’s another hot take that I don’t think Georgia will be ranked in the top four at the first playoff rankings, but given the weight of the other teams’ wins and records, along with the eye test, Georgia doesn’t really hold a candle to them in my opinion. Their best win is against Kentucky, who has shown that they aren’t built to bounce back from reality, so Georgia really is more of a team that allows others to beat a dead horse rather than a team that beats other competitors.
College Football Prediction Central with Paul Shen 