Predictions for Week 5 of the 2023 College Football Season + Misses from Week 4

It’s the last week of September this week, and through week 4, we’ve seen some wild things. Virtually nobody thought Alabama would be 3-1, and subsequently, virtually nobody thought Texas would be ranked in the top 5 at this point in the season. Colorado isn’t the same without Travis Hunter. Northwestern has the same record as Clemson. Northwestern! Clemson has lost two games already. Duke is ranked in the top 20, and so is North Carolina. Two “basketball schools” are undefeated and ranked in the top 20 in football. Let’s not forget Kansas, another “basketball school” that is debuting in the Top 25 this week. I was wrong about Ohio State as they eked out, literally, a win over Notre Dame. I did not think Ball State would be that poor against Georgia State either.

Week 4 Record: 53-14 (.791)
Record after 4 weeks: 262-56 (0.824)

September 28 (3 games):

Western Kentucky def. Middle Tennessee State, 33-29
Tulsa def. Temple, 30-27
Jacksonville State def. Sam Houston State, 28-14

September 29 (4 games):

Louisville def. NC State, 35-28
10) Utah def. 19) Oregon State, 27-24
Louisiana Tech def. UTEP, 30-28
BYU def. Cincinnati, 31-25

September 30 (52 games):

Northwestern def. 6) Penn State, 31-30
8) USC def. Colorado, 51-17
22) Florida def. Kentucky, 27-23
Arkansas def. Texas A&M, 35-30
Minnesota def. Louisiana, 42-14
Utah State def. UConn, 31-14
Syracuse def. Clemson, 26-23
Tulane def. UAB, 39-28
James Madison def. South Alabama, 38-28
Akron def. Buffalo, 41-27
Central Michigan def. Eastern Michigan, 35-21
Boston College def. Virginia, 29-24
Miami (OH) def. Kent State, 41-27
California def. Arizona State, 45-31
1) Georgia def. Auburn, 41-10
2) Michigan def. Nebraska, 35-13
3) Texas def. 24) Kansas, 38-30
Maryland def. Indiana, 37-23
Purdue def. Illinois, 24-21
Rutgers def. Wagner, 31-3
Georgia Tech def. Bowling Green, 34-17
Texas Tech def. Houston, 31-24
UCF def. Baylor, 37-29
Massachusetts def. Arkansas State, 33-30
South Florida def. Navy, 20-17
Marshall def. Old Dominion, 34-20
Western Michigan def. Ball State, 36-21
Toledo def. Northern Illinois, 37-17
23) Missouri def. Vanderbilt, 41-19
Memphis def. Boise State, 35-27
UNLV def. Hawaii, 38-24
Wyoming def. New Mexico, 41-24
20) Ole Miss def. 13) LSU, 34-27
9) Oregon def. Stanford, 38-14
14) Oklahoma def. Iowa State, 36-27
East Carolina def. Rice, 28-24
North Texas def. Abilene Christian, 29-26
Georgia Southern def. Coastal Carolina, 27-20
Georgia State def. Troy, 30-26
Texas State def. Southern Mississippi, 38-33
Colorado State def. Utah Tech, 38-7
11) Notre Dame def. 17) Duke, 35-34
21) Tennessee def. South Carolina, 59-45
Michigan State def. Iowa, 17-14
SMU def. Charlotte, 28-13
Pittsburgh def. Virginia Tech, 34-21
TCU def. West Virginia, 30-23
Appalachian State def. UL Monroe, 34-20
Air Force def. San Diego State, 35-33
12) Alabama def. Mississippi State, 38-26
7) Washington def. Arizona, 45-24
25) Fresno State def. Nevada, 41-19

As a reminder to the viewers, my preseason CFP picks were Georgia, USC, Michigan, and Florida State. Two of them are currently ranked in the top 4, with another ranked at 5. To me, USC is at 8 because of how poor their defense has been so far this season. We saw this same narrative with Lincoln Riley’s teams at Oklahoma, though the difference was their offense did well enough to overcome that and get there. If USC is to miss the playoff again after falling short last year, the defense is going to the reason they miss it again.